ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC

New York Red Bulls Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlanta United FC Away · Elo 1,462
Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: New York Red Bulls win
New York Red Bulls winPick
45.2%
Draw
25.2%
Atlanta United FC win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.5%
No41.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.7%
Under 2.541.3%

How much we know

New York Red Bulls history40 matches
Atlanta United FC history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why New York Red Bulls are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,461 against 1,462. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.35 goals a game over 40 matches for New York Red Bulls, against 1.26 over 39 for Atlanta United FC.

  • Defences are close

    New York Red Bulls concede 1.55 a game, Atlanta United FC 1.51.

  • New York Red Bulls games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of New York Red Bulls matches, against 49% for Atlanta United FC. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.8
ELO
1461.8
40
ELO · Matches
39
1460.8
Current Team ELO
1461.8
1461.8
Current Opponent ELO
1460.8
-1.00
Current ELO Difference
1.00
0.50
Expected score
0.50
40
History Matches
39
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.06
46.15
Overperformance
46.04
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
39
1.13
PPG
1.13
30.0%
Win rate
28.2%
22.5%
Draw rate
28.2%
47.5%
Loss rate
43.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
22
1.56
PPG
0.77
44.4%
Win rate
18.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
22.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
59.1%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
18
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.26
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
59.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.05
72.2%
Scoring rate
68.2%
44.4%
BTTS rate
59.1%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.13
80.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
73.3%
BTTS rate
62.5%
40
History Matches
39
1.35
Goals Mean
1.26
1.13
Goals Std
1.08
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.0%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.51
82.5%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.82
72.2%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.81
93.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
39
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.07
Conceded Std
1.06
47.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.7%
22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
39
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.46
4.39
Stability score
2.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
37
12
Lead Matches
11
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.76
14
Trailing Matches
13
21.4%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
75.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
9
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
16
1.40
PPG
0.88
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
15
Current Competition Matches
16
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.88
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.69
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.70
0.63
Portability PPG Range
1.63
66.18
Portability Score
41.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.00
PPG0.00
GF0.09
GA0.04
PPG0.53
PPG0.78
PPG-0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score2.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.35
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.44
Portability PPG Range-0.99
Portability Score24.46
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO-1.00
Current Opponent ELO1.00
Current ELO Difference-2.00
Expected score0.00
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

New York Red Bulls

L
Nashville SC3–2New York Red Bulls1 Nov · away
Pick: Nashville SC 70% · hit
L
New England Revolution3–2New York Red Bulls28 Oct · away
Pick: New England Revolution 46% · hit
W
New York Red Bulls2–0Inter Miami24 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Miami 49% · missed
L
New York Red Bulls0–2Toronto FC17 Oct · home
Pick: New York Red Bulls 42% · missed
L
DC United2–1New York Red Bulls14 Oct · away
Pick: DC United 37% · hit

Atlanta United FC

W
Atlanta United FC3–1Toronto FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Atlanta United FC 39% · hit
L
New York City FC2–1Atlanta United FC28 Oct · away
Pick: New York City FC 55% · hit
L
Atlanta United FC2–3Chicago Fire24 Oct · home
Pick: Chicago Fire 55% · hit
L
Atlanta United FC1–3Inter Miami17 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Miami 54% · hit
W
CF Montreal0–3Atlanta United FC14 Oct · away
Pick: CF Montreal 44% · missed

About this match

New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC meet in Major League Soccer on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: New York Red Bulls win 45.2%, draw 25.2%, Atlanta United FC win 29.5%. The pick is New York Red Bulls win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.7%. Both teams to score: 58.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.