ScoreProb
Super League Switzerland Round 13 2026

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano

FC ST. Gallen Home · Elo 1,657
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Lugano Away · Elo 1,643
Kybunpark, St. Gallen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Lugano win
FC ST. Gallen win
25.8%
Draw
23.8%
FC Lugano winPick
50.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%

How much we know

FC ST. Gallen history78 matches
FC Lugano history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Lugano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,657 against 1,643. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • FC ST. Gallen score more

    1.92 goals a game over 78 matches for FC ST. Gallen, against 1.68 over 80 for FC Lugano.

  • Defences are close

    FC ST. Gallen concede 1.42 a game, FC Lugano 1.30.

  • FC ST. Gallen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of FC ST. Gallen matches, against 50% for FC Lugano. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC ST. Gallen
FC Lugano@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1657.3
ELO
1643.4
78
ELO · Matches
80
1657.3
Current Team ELO
1643.4
1643.4
Current Opponent ELO
1657.3
13.94
Current ELO Difference
-13.94
0.52
Expected score
0.48
78
History Matches
80
0.10
Residual Mean
0.09
57.93
Overperformance
57.41
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
3.20
Goals for per game
4.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.50
2.30
Goals for per game
3.30
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.30
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.69
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
80
1.78
PPG
1.61
51.3%
Win rate
46.3%
24.4%
Draw rate
22.5%
24.4%
Loss rate
31.3%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
39
1.87
PPG
1.41
56.4%
Win rate
38.5%
17.9%
Draw rate
25.6%
25.6%
Loss rate
35.9%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.0%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
39
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.68
82.1%
Scoring rate
82.5%
65.4%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.62
87.2%
Scoring rate
74.4%
69.2%
BTTS rate
51.3%
2.33
Goals for per game
3.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
78
History Matches
80
1.92
Goals Mean
1.68
1.80
Goals Std
1.61
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
59.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
25.6%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.30
78.2%
Conceding rate
71.3%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.26
79.5%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
78
History Matches
80
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.29
Conceded Std
1.21
34.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.3%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
80
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.09
6.20
Stability score
3.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
80
25
Lead Matches
25
68.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.81
23
Trailing Matches
19
34.8%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
21.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.00
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
17
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.76
48
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
9
Competition Season Count
12
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.94
46.46
Portability Score
41.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.94
PPG0.17
GF0.25
GA0.12
PPG-0.67
PPG0.46
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate19.0%
Scored 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.27
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.08
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score2.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate11.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.28
Portability Score5.09
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.44
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO13.94
Current Opponent ELO-13.94
Current ELO Difference27.88
Expected score0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC ST. Gallen

W
FC ST. Gallen2–1Servette FC31 Oct · home
Pick: FC ST. Gallen 54% · hit
L
BSC Young Boys2–0FC ST. Gallen24 Oct · away
Pick: BSC Young Boys 55% · hit
W
Rapperswil0–2FC ST. Gallen16 Oct · away
Pick: Rapperswil 48% · missed
L
FC ST. Gallen3–4FC Thun30 Aug · home
Pick: FC ST. Gallen 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Lugano

W
FC Lugano2–1FC Basel 18931 Nov · home
Pick: FC Lugano 59% · hit
W
FC Thun2–3FC Lugano25 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lugano 57% · hit
W
Getafe2–5FC Lugano22 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lugano 47% · hit
W
Pully Football0–4FC Lugano18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Lugano 47% · hit
W
FC Lugano3–2FK Crvena Zvezda15 Oct · home
Pick: FK Crvena Zvezda 47% · missed

About this match

FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Kybunpark, St. Gallen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC ST. Gallen win 25.8%, draw 23.8%, FC Lugano win 50.3%. The pick is FC Lugano win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.5%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.