ScoreProb
Super League Switzerland Round 13 2026

FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893

FC Thun Home · Elo 1,589
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Basel 1893 Away · Elo 1,547
Stockhorn Arena, Thun Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Basel 1893 win
FC Thun win
29.3%
Draw
19.5%
FC Basel 1893 winPick
51.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.2%
No37.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%

How much we know

FC Thun history66 matches
FC Basel 1893 history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Basel 1893 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Thun are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,547. On rating alone FC Thun would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.08 goals a game over 66 matches for FC Thun, against 1.90 over 88 for FC Basel 1893.

  • Defences are close

    FC Thun concede 1.41 a game, FC Basel 1893 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of FC Thun matches, against 66% for FC Basel 1893. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Thun
FC Basel 1893@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.8
ELO
1547.2
66
ELO · Matches
88
1588.8
Current Team ELO
1547.2
1547.2
Current Opponent ELO
1588.8
41.65
Current ELO Difference
-41.65
0.56
Expected score
0.44
66
History Matches
88
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
54.79
Overperformance
52.04
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
2.80
2.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
2.10
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.84
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.38
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
88
1.86
PPG
1.60
57.6%
Win rate
46.6%
13.6%
Draw rate
20.5%
28.8%
Loss rate
33.0%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
71.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.8%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
44
2.03
PPG
1.61
62.5%
Win rate
50.0%
15.6%
Draw rate
11.4%
21.9%
Loss rate
38.6%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
71.9%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
32
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.08
Goals for per game
1.90
84.8%
Scoring rate
83.0%
65.2%
BTTS rate
64.8%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.91
87.5%
Scoring rate
84.1%
68.8%
BTTS rate
65.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.75
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
88
2.08
Goals Mean
1.90
1.50
Goals Std
1.50
84.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
63.6%
Scored 2+ rate
52.3%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
29.5%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.51
78.8%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.70
81.3%
Conceding rate
79.5%
3.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
66
History Matches
88
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.40
Conceded Std
1.35
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.3%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
88
0.86
Result entropy
0.95
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.06
13.71
Stability score
4.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
88
28
Lead Matches
33
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.8%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
25
37.5%
Non-loss rate
24.0%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.06
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
19
1.70
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.21
30
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
2.25
33.3%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
3.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
9
Competition Season Count
10
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.06
Portability PPG Range
1.58
50.95
Portability Score
46.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO41.65
PPG0.26
GF0.18
GA-0.10
PPG-1.25
PPG0.42
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-22
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-22
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate1.9%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-22
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches-22
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score8.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches-22
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate17.1%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate13.5%
Trailing Win Rate6.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-22
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score3.98
Rest days6.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match0.49
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO41.65
Current Opponent ELO-41.65
Current ELO Difference83.30
Expected score0.12
History Matches-22
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Thun

W
Lausanne4–5FC Thun1 Nov · away
Pick: Lausanne 59% · missed
L
FC Thun2–3FC Lugano25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lugano 57% · hit
L
FC Thun0–1HNK Hajduk Split22 Oct · home
Pick: HNK Hajduk Split 49% · hit
L
Twente1–0FC Thun15 Oct · away
Pick: Twente 53% · hit
W
FC ST. Gallen3–4FC Thun30 Aug · away
Pick: FC ST. Gallen 64% · missed

FC Basel 1893

L
FC Lugano2–1FC Basel 18931 Nov · away
Pick: FC Lugano 59% · hit
D
FC Basel 18930–0Grasshoppers25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Basel 1893 58% · missed
W
Stade Nyonnais0–3FC Basel 189316 Oct · away
Pick: FC Basel 1893 59% · hit
D
BSC Young Boys3–3FC Basel 189329 Aug · away
Pick: BSC Young Boys 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Thun and FC Basel 1893 meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Stockhorn Arena, Thun. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FC Thun win 29.3%, draw 19.5%, FC Basel 1893 win 51.3%. The pick is FC Basel 1893 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 62.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.