Firpo vs Isidro Metapán
Match result probability Model pick: Firpo win
Firpo winPick
43.8%
Draw
31.7%
Isidro Metapán win
24.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.8%
No52.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%
How much we know
Firpo history85 matches
Isidro Metapán history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Firpo
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 00:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Firpo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Firpo are rated 136 Elo points higher
Elo 1,674 against 1,538. On rating alone Firpo would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
Firpo score more
1.80 goals a game over 85 matches for Firpo, against 1.20 over 76 for Isidro Metapán.
-
Firpo concede fewer
Firpo concede 0.86 a game, Isidro Metapán 1.11.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
48% of Firpo matches, against 46% for Isidro Metapán. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Isidro Metapán@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1673.9
ELO
1538.3
85
ELO · Matches
76
1673.9
Current Team ELO
1538.3
1538.3
Current Opponent ELO
1673.9
135.6
Current ELO Difference
-135.6
0.69
Expected score
0.31
85
History Matches
76
0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
58.10
Overperformance
51.75
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.00
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
0.50
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals 90
85
Matches
76
2.07
PPG
1.47
60.0%
Win rate
38.2%
27.1%
Draw rate
32.9%
12.9%
Loss rate
28.9%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
46.1%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals 100
43
Matches
39
2.09
PPG
1.36
60.5%
Win rate
33.3%
27.9%
Draw rate
35.9%
11.6%
Loss rate
30.8%
65.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.8%
34.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.0%
20.9%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
43
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
83.5%
Scoring rate
68.4%
51.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.15
79.1%
Scoring rate
69.2%
34.9%
BTTS rate
48.7%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.67
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
20.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
85
History Matches
76
1.80
Goals Mean
1.20
1.30
Goals Std
1.04
83.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
51.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
32.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.2%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.86
Goals against per game
1.11
58.8%
Conceding rate
65.8%
0.65
Goals against per game
1.10
44.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.20
Goals against per game
0.67
20.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
85
History Matches
76
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.11
0.93
Conceded Std
0.98
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.2%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
16.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
55.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
80.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
16.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
55.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
85
History Matches
76
0.84
Result entropy
0.99
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.34
15.82
Stability score
0.58
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
84
Eligible Matches
76
34
Lead Matches
20
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
17
Trailing Matches
19
64.7%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
29.4%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.06
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
14
2.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
42
2.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
15
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
6
2.20
PPG
2.17
60.0%
Win rate
66.7%
40.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
5
Current Competition Matches
6
2.20
Current Competition PPG
2.17
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.69
Portability PPG Range
0.88
68.62
Portability Score
61.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
85
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO135.6
PPG0.60
GF0.60
GA-0.25
PPG0.03
PPG0.73
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate22.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.60
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate15.1%
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate23.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate7.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score15.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate8.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate33.1%
Trailing Win Rate18.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.03
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score7.23
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO135.6
Current Opponent ELO-135.6
Current ELO Difference271.2
Expected score0.37
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Firpo
W
Firpo2–0Alianza5 Nov · home
Pick: Firpo 58% · hit D
Firpo1–1FAS1 Nov · home
Pick: Firpo 52% · missed L
Deportivo Saprissa2–1Firpo29 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 40% · hit D
Firpo0–0Deportivo Saprissa22 Oct · home
Pick: Firpo 40% · missed D
Alianza2–2Firpo4 Oct · away
Pick: Firpo 53% · missed Isidro Metapán
D
Inca Aruba1–1Isidro Metapán7 Nov · away
Pick: Isidro Metapán 60% · missed D
Isidro Metapán1–1Municipal Limeño1 Nov · home
Pick: Isidro Metapán 48% · missed D
FAS0–0Isidro Metapán22 Oct · away
Pick: FAS 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Firpo and Isidro Metapán meet in Primera Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Firpo win 43.8%, draw 31.7%, Isidro Metapán win 24.4%. The pick is Firpo win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.3%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.