ScoreProb
Carioca U20 Brazil Semi-finals 2026

Flamengo U20 vs Vasco da Gama U20

Flamengo U20 Home · Elo 1,633
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vasco da Gama U20 Away · Elo 1,641
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Flamengo U20 win
Flamengo U20 winPick
47.5%
Draw
26.2%
Vasco da Gama U20 win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Flamengo U20 history82 matches
Vasco da Gama U20 history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 5 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Flamengo U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,633 against 1,641. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.98 goals a game over 82 matches for Flamengo U20, against 1.93 over 84 for Vasco da Gama U20.

  • Defences are close

    Flamengo U20 concede 1.13 a game, Vasco da Gama U20 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Flamengo U20 matches, against 55% for Vasco da Gama U20. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Flamengo U20
Vasco da Gama U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1632.9
ELO
1641.0
82
ELO · Matches
84
1632.9
Current Team ELO
1641.0
1641.0
Current Opponent ELO
1632.9
-8.04
Current ELO Difference
8.04
0.49
Expected score
0.51
82
History Matches
84
0.09
Residual Mean
0.08
57.40
Overperformance
56.41
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
84
1.84
PPG
1.88
54.9%
Win rate
57.1%
19.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
25.6%
Loss rate
26.2%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
59.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.9%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
43
1.91
PPG
1.47
55.3%
Win rate
39.5%
25.5%
Draw rate
27.9%
19.1%
Loss rate
32.6%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.2%
42.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
47
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.98
Goals for per game
1.93
85.4%
Scoring rate
86.9%
53.7%
BTTS rate
61.9%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.47
83.0%
Scoring rate
83.7%
48.9%
BTTS rate
65.1%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
82
History Matches
84
1.98
Goals Mean
1.93
1.74
Goals Std
1.50
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
86.9%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
30.5%
Scored 3+ rate
27.4%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.11
62.2%
Conceding rate
72.6%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.28
55.3%
Conceding rate
79.1%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
82
History Matches
84
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.21
Conceded Std
1.04
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.1%
44.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
13.1%
44.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
84
0.91
Result entropy
0.88
2.30
Goal Difference Std
1.91
9.25
Stability score
11.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
84
33
Lead Matches
35
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.88
15
Trailing Matches
14
26.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.99
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
28
Short Rest History Matches
19
1.68
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.84
38
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
15
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
10
Competition Season Count
8
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.56
Portability PPG Range
0.73
52.70
Portability Score
68.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-8.04
PPG-0.04
GF0.05
GA0.03
PPG1.00
PPG0.45
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Conceded 2+ rate7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-2.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.66
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.82
Portability Score-15.81
Rest days-1.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-8.04
Current Opponent ELO8.04
Current ELO Difference-16.08
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Flamengo U20

L
Flamengo U200–1Operário PR U203 Nov · home
Pick: Flamengo U20 61% · missed
W
Criciuma U200–2Flamengo U2020 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo U20 45% · hit
W
Flamengo U203–0Maricá U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Flamengo U20 69% · hit
W
Flamengo U204–1Madureira U2029 Aug · home
Pick: Flamengo U20 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vasco da Gama U20

W
Vasco da Gama U203–0Madureira U2030 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco da Gama U20 54% · hit
W
Madureira U202–3Vasco da Gama U2024 Oct · away
Pick: Vasco da Gama U20 48% · hit
W
Vasco da Gama U203–0Sampaio Correa FE U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco da Gama U20 48% · hit
W
Vasco da Gama U202–1Boavista U209 Sep · home
Pick: Vasco da Gama U20 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Flamengo U20 and Vasco da Gama U20 meet in Carioca U20 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Flamengo U20 win 47.5%, draw 26.2%, Vasco da Gama U20 win 26.3%. The pick is Flamengo U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.