ScoreProb
Carioca U20 Brazil Semi-finals 2026

Nova Iguaçu U20 vs Bangu U20

Nova Iguaçu U20 Home · Elo 1,449
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bangu U20 Away · Elo 1,484
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bangu U20 win
Nova Iguaçu U20 win
34.4%
Draw
28.4%
Bangu U20 winPick
37.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%

How much we know

Nova Iguaçu U20 history26 matches
Bangu U20 history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 5 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bangu U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bangu U20 are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,484 against 1,449. On rating alone Bangu U20 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.85 goals a game over 26 matches for Nova Iguaçu U20, against 0.89 over 35 for Bangu U20.

  • Defences are close

    Nova Iguaçu U20 concede 1.50 a game, Bangu U20 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Nova Iguaçu U20 matches, against 43% for Bangu U20. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nova Iguaçu U20
Bangu U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1449.0
ELO
1483.9
26
ELO · Matches
35
1449.0
Current Team ELO
1483.9
1483.9
Current Opponent ELO
1449.0
-34.96
Current ELO Difference
34.96
0.45
Expected score
0.55
26
History Matches
35
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.02
44.57
Overperformance
48.44
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
35
0.88
PPG
1.17
23.1%
Win rate
31.4%
19.2%
Draw rate
22.9%
57.7%
Loss rate
45.7%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
13
Matches
18
1.38
PPG
0.83
38.5%
Win rate
16.7%
23.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
38.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
53.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
7.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
13
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
0.89
61.5%
Scoring rate
65.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.92
Goals for per game
0.72
69.2%
Scoring rate
55.6%
46.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
26
History Matches
35
0.85
Goals Mean
0.89
0.82
Goals Std
0.78
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.7%
19.2%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
3.8%
Scored 3+ rate
2.9%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.51
80.8%
Conceding rate
65.7%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.78
69.2%
Conceding rate
72.2%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
26
History Matches
35
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.25
Conceded Std
1.44
34.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.7%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
35
0.89
Result entropy
0.96
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.81
11.45
Stability score
3.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
34
4
Lead Matches
7
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.90
7
Trailing Matches
13
14.3%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
83.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
15
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
9
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.63
0.27
Portability PPG Range
1.68
80.89
Portability Score
44.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-34.96
PPG-0.29
GF-0.04
GA-0.01
PPG0.50
PPG0.55
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score7.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.36
Lead Points Retention-0.32
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.51
Portability PPG Range-1.40
Portability Score36.76
Rest days-5.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-34.96
Current Opponent ELO34.96
Current ELO Difference-69.91
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nova Iguaçu U20

L
Nova Iguaçu U200–2Fluminense U2024 Oct · home
Pick: Fluminense U20 61% · hit
L
Botafogo U201–0Nova Iguaçu U2017 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo U20 65% · hit
L
Maricá U203–0Nova Iguaçu U2029 Aug · away
Pick: Maricá U20 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bangu U20

L
Botafogo U203–1Bangu U2031 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo U20 62% · hit
W
Bangu U202–0Botafogo U2024 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo U20 51% · missed
D
Bangu U202–2Madureira U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Bangu U20 47% · missed
W
Bangu U203–1Botafogo U2013 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo U20 51% · missed
L
Fluminense U202–1Bangu U2029 Aug · away
Pick: Fluminense U20 69% · hit

About this match

Nova Iguaçu U20 and Bangu U20 meet in Carioca U20 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Nova Iguaçu U20 win 34.4%, draw 28.4%, Bangu U20 win 37.3%. The pick is Bangu U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.