ScoreProb
Carioca U20 Brazil Semi-finals 2026

Botafogo U20 vs Fluminense U20

Botafogo U20 Home · Elo 1,666
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fluminense U20 Away · Elo 1,556
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Botafogo U20 win
Botafogo U20 winPick
46.0%
Draw
23.1%
Fluminense U20 win
30.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.5%
No49.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Botafogo U20 history82 matches
Fluminense U20 history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 5 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.0%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Botafogo U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Botafogo U20 are rated 111 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,666 against 1,556. On rating alone Botafogo U20 would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Botafogo U20 score more

    1.87 goals a game over 82 matches for Botafogo U20, against 1.44 over 75 for Fluminense U20.

  • Defences are close

    Botafogo U20 concede 1.04 a game, Fluminense U20 1.13.

  • Botafogo U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Botafogo U20 matches, against 47% for Fluminense U20. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Botafogo U20
Fluminense U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1666.4
ELO
1555.7
82
ELO · Matches
75
1666.4
Current Team ELO
1555.7
1555.7
Current Opponent ELO
1666.4
110.7
Current ELO Difference
-110.7
0.65
Expected score
0.35
82
History Matches
75
0.11
Residual Mean
0.04
58.52
Overperformance
53.41
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
75
1.93
PPG
1.49
57.3%
Win rate
42.7%
20.7%
Draw rate
21.3%
22.0%
Loss rate
36.0%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
57.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
35
2.39
PPG
1.31
72.7%
Win rate
37.1%
20.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
6.8%
Loss rate
42.9%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
44
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
1.44
82.9%
Scoring rate
72.0%
51.2%
BTTS rate
41.3%
2.11
Goals for per game
1.43
88.6%
Scoring rate
74.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
82
History Matches
75
1.87
Goals Mean
1.44
1.54
Goals Std
1.19
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
31.7%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.13
62.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.29
59.1%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
82
History Matches
75
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.12
Conceded Std
1.04
25.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.0%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
75
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.85
10.97
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
75
36
Lead Matches
28
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.89
19
Trailing Matches
23
42.1%
Non-loss rate
34.8%
21.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
15
2.47
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
50
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.41
Portability PPG Range
1.33
53.99
Portability Score
54.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO110.7
PPG0.43
GF0.43
GA-0.10
PPG-1.33
PPG1.07
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate3.3%
Scored 3+ rate11.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score7.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate8.7%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate7.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-0.43
Rest days8.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.54
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO110.7
Current Opponent ELO-110.7
Current ELO Difference221.3
Expected score0.31
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Botafogo U20

W
Botafogo U203–1Bangu U2031 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo U20 62% · hit
L
Bangu U202–0Botafogo U2024 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo U20 51% · missed
L
Botafogo U202–4Palmeiras U2022 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras U20 55% · hit
W
Botafogo U201–0Nova Iguaçu U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo U20 65% · hit
L
Palmeiras U204–1Botafogo U2015 Oct · away
Pick: Palmeiras U20 50% · hit

Fluminense U20

W
Nova Iguaçu U200–2Fluminense U2024 Oct · away
Pick: Fluminense U20 61% · hit
W
Fluminense U204–1Portuguesa RJ U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Fluminense U20 74% · hit
W
Fluminense U202–1Bangu U2029 Aug · home
Pick: Fluminense U20 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Botafogo U20 and Fluminense U20 meet in Carioca U20 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Botafogo U20 win 46.0%, draw 23.1%, Fluminense U20 win 30.9%. The pick is Botafogo U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 50.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.