ScoreProb
Carioca U20 Brazil Semi-finals 2026

Madureira U20 vs Sampaio Correa FE U20

Madureira U20 Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sampaio Correa FE U20 Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Madureira U20 win
Madureira U20 winPick
42.7%
Draw
27.6%
Sampaio Correa FE U20 win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%

How much we know

Madureira U20 history28 matches
Sampaio Correa FE U20 history19 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 10 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Madureira U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,488. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sampaio Correa FE U20 score more

    1.04 goals a game over 28 matches for Madureira U20, against 1.21 over 19 for Sampaio Correa FE U20.

  • Madureira U20 concede fewer

    Madureira U20 concede 1.36 a game, Sampaio Correa FE U20 1.84.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Madureira U20 matches, against 58% for Sampaio Correa FE U20. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Madureira U20
Sampaio Correa FE U20@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.5
ELO
1487.8
28
ELO · Matches
19
1498.5
Current Team ELO
1487.8
1487.8
Current Opponent ELO
1498.5
10.65
Current ELO Difference
-10.65
0.52
Expected score
0.48
28
History Matches
19
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.29
Overperformance
47.84
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
28
Matches
19
1.29
PPG
1.11
32.1%
Win rate
26.3%
32.1%
Draw rate
31.6%
35.7%
Loss rate
42.1%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
11
1.53
PPG
0.82
40.0%
Win rate
18.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
26.7%
Loss rate
54.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
81.8%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
15
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.04
Goals for per game
1.21
60.7%
Scoring rate
84.2%
46.4%
BTTS rate
68.4%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.27
53.3%
Scoring rate
90.9%
40.0%
BTTS rate
81.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
28
History Matches
19
1.04
Goals Mean
1.21
1.05
Goals Std
0.77
60.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.2%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.6%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.84
71.4%
Conceding rate
78.9%
1.27
Goals against per game
2.55
66.7%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
28
History Matches
19
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.23
Conceded Std
1.72
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
2.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
39.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
28
History Matches
19
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.47
Goal Difference Std
2.03
0.11
Stability score
1.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
27
Eligible Matches
19
4
Lead Matches
4
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
7
10.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
27
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.21
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
13
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.87
0.57
Portability PPG Range
2.13
68.02
Portability Score
36.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
28
Clean History Matches
19
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.65
PPG0.18
GF-0.17
GA-0.48
PPG-1.33
PPG0.72
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate23.5%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate24.2%
Failed-to-score rate37.6%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches9
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score-1.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.64
Portability PPG Range-1.56
Portability Score31.58
Rest days0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO10.65
Current Opponent ELO-10.65
Current ELO Difference21.29
Expected score0.03
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance2.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Madureira U20

L
Vasco da Gama U203–0Madureira U2030 Oct · away
Pick: Vasco da Gama U20 54% · hit
L
Madureira U202–3Vasco da Gama U2024 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco da Gama U20 48% · hit
D
Bangu U202–2Madureira U2017 Oct · away
Pick: Bangu U20 47% · missed
L
Flamengo U204–1Madureira U2029 Aug · away
Pick: Flamengo U20 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sampaio Correa FE U20

L
Vasco da Gama U203–0Sampaio Correa FE U2017 Oct · away
Pick: Vasco da Gama U20 48% · hit
W
Sampaio Correa FE U202–1Portuguesa RJ U2029 Aug · home
Pick: Sampaio Correa FE U20 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Madureira U20 and Sampaio Correa FE U20 meet in Carioca U20 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Madureira U20 win 42.7%, draw 27.6%, Sampaio Correa FE U20 win 29.7%. The pick is Madureira U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.5%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.