Fremad Amager vs Brabrand
Match result probability Model pick: Fremad Amager win
Fremad Amager winPick
51.8%
Draw
26.0%
Brabrand win
22.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.7%
No46.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.8%
Under 2.545.2%
How much we know
Fremad Amager history71 matches
Brabrand history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Fremad Amager
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Fremad Amager are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Fremad Amager are rated 89 Elo points higher
Elo 1,526 against 1,438. On rating alone Fremad Amager would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.18 goals a game over 71 matches for Fremad Amager, against 1.26 over 61 for Brabrand.
-
Fremad Amager concede fewer
Fremad Amager concede 1.20 a game, Brabrand 1.54.
-
Brabrand games more often go over 2.5 goals
41% of Fremad Amager matches, against 56% for Brabrand. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brabrand@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1526.4
ELO
1437.7
71
ELO · Matches
61
1526.4
Current Team ELO
1437.7
1437.7
Current Opponent ELO
1526.4
88.68
Current ELO Difference
-88.68
0.62
Expected score
0.38
71
History Matches
61
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.33
Overperformance
46.35
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
71
Matches
61
1.41
PPG
1.16
36.6%
Win rate
31.1%
31.0%
Draw rate
23.0%
32.4%
Loss rate
45.9%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
40.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.7%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
30
1.69
PPG
1.07
45.7%
Win rate
30.0%
31.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
22.9%
Loss rate
53.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
31.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
35
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.26
71.8%
Scoring rate
68.9%
49.3%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.17
82.9%
Scoring rate
60.0%
51.4%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
61
1.18
Goals Mean
1.26
0.95
Goals Std
1.19
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
38.0%
Scored 2+ rate
34.4%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.54
71.8%
Conceding rate
72.1%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.60
65.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
61
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.12
Conceded Std
1.34
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.9%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.6%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
71
History Matches
61
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.83
0.23
Stability score
3.65
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
70
Eligible Matches
60
19
Lead Matches
16
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.75
22
Trailing Matches
22
45.5%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.88
Rest days
84.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
45
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.34
Portability PPG Range
1.00
79.23
Portability Score
55.58
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
71
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO88.68
PPG0.24
GF-0.08
GA-0.34
PPG0.50
PPG0.62
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate3.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches10
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-3.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate4.9%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate27.3%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.66
Portability Score23.65
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO88.68
Current Opponent ELO-88.68
Current ELO Difference177.4
Expected score0.25
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Fremad Amager
D
Thisted FC0–0Fremad Amager6 Nov · away
Pick: Fremad Amager 45% · missed W
Fremad Amager2–1Middelfart31 Oct · home
Pick: Middelfart 40% · missed L
Roskilde4–0Fremad Amager23 Oct · away
Pick: Roskilde 46% · hit W
Fremad Amager3–2Nykobing FC16 Oct · home
Pick: Nykobing FC 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Brabrand
L
Brabrand1–2FA 200031 Oct · home
Pick: Brabrand 38% · missed W
B 932–3Brabrand24 Oct · away
Pick: B 93 59% · missed L
Brabrand0–1HIK17 Oct · home
Pick: Brabrand 39% · missed D
Brabrand1–1B 9329 Aug · home
Pick: B 93 47% · missed W
KRFK1–5Brabrand26 Aug · away
Pick: KRFK 57% · missed About this match
Fremad Amager and Brabrand meet in 2. Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Fremad Amager win 51.8%, draw 26.0%, Brabrand win 22.2%. The pick is Fremad Amager win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.8%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.