VSK Århus vs Middelfart
Match result probability Model pick: VSK Århus win
VSK Århus winPick
52.1%
Draw
23.2%
Middelfart win
24.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.8%
No45.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
How much we know
VSK Århus history65 matches
Middelfart history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours VSK Århus
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why VSK Århus are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
VSK Århus are rated 81 Elo points higher
Elo 1,533 against 1,452. On rating alone VSK Århus would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.51 goals a game over 65 matches for VSK Århus, against 1.37 over 68 for Middelfart.
-
VSK Århus concede fewer
VSK Århus concede 1.20 a game, Middelfart 1.81.
-
Middelfart games more often go over 2.5 goals
42% of VSK Århus matches, against 65% for Middelfart. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Middelfart@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1532.7
ELO
1451.8
65
ELO · Matches
68
1532.7
Current Team ELO
1451.8
1451.8
Current Opponent ELO
1532.7
80.89
Current ELO Difference
-80.89
0.61
Expected score
0.39
65
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.33
Overperformance
47.97
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.00
3.20
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals 90
65
Matches
68
1.45
PPG
1.21
35.4%
Win rate
33.8%
38.5%
Draw rate
19.1%
26.2%
Loss rate
47.1%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
41.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
33.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.6%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
31
1.53
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
25.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
22.6%
26.7%
Loss rate
51.6%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.37
70.8%
Scoring rate
73.5%
50.8%
BTTS rate
54.4%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.10
70.0%
Scoring rate
71.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
65
History Matches
68
1.51
Goals Mean
1.37
1.48
Goals Std
1.17
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.81
70.8%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.10
Goals against per game
2.10
66.7%
Conceding rate
80.6%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.25
25.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
65
History Matches
68
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.15
Conceded Std
1.68
30.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.1%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.5%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
2.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
65
History Matches
68
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.22
1.16
Stability score
5.55
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
64
Eligible Matches
67
23
Lead Matches
21
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.73
14
Trailing Matches
18
21.4%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.06
Rest days
80.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
26
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
1.75
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.75
2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.56
2.67
Portability PPG Range
1.53
38.29
Portability Score
47.23
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
65
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO80.89
PPG0.24
GF0.14
GA-0.61
PPG1.25
PPG0.53
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.61
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-4.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate2.9%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate10.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range1.14
Portability Score-8.94
Rest days2.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO80.89
Current Opponent ELO-80.89
Current ELO Difference161.8
Expected score0.23
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
VSK Århus
L
FA 20001–0VSK Århus7 Nov · away
Pick: VSK Århus 43% · missed L
Skive4–1VSK Århus30 Oct · away
Pick: VSK Århus 46% · missed D
VSK Århus2–2Naestved24 Oct · home
Pick: VSK Århus 59% · missed D
Thisted FC2–2VSK Århus18 Oct · away
Pick: VSK Århus 44% · missed D
VSK Århus0–0FA 200029 Aug · home
Pick: VSK Århus 57% · missed Middelfart
W
Middelfart3–2Naestved7 Nov · home
Pick: Middelfart 51% · hit L
Fremad Amager2–1Middelfart31 Oct · away
Pick: Middelfart 40% · missed D
Middelfart3–3Skive24 Oct · home
Pick: Middelfart 54% · missed D
Middelfart3–3Roskilde17 Oct · home
Pick: Middelfart 48% · missed W
HIK1–2Middelfart29 Aug · away
Pick: Middelfart 38% · hit About this match
VSK Århus and Middelfart meet in 2. Division on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: VSK Århus win 52.1%, draw 23.2%, Middelfart win 24.6%. The pick is VSK Århus win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.