Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Petare FC
Match result probability Model pick: Fundación Lara Deportiva win
Fundación Lara Deportiva winPick
47.3%
Draw
28.2%
Petare FC win
24.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.9%
No52.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.543.4%
Under 2.556.6%
How much we know
Fundación Lara Deportiva history57 matches
Petare FC history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Fundación Lara Deportiva
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 21:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 22:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Fundación Lara Deportiva are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Petare FC are rated 38 Elo points higher
Elo 1,585 against 1,547. On rating alone Petare FC would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Fundación Lara Deportiva score more
1.44 goals a game over 57 matches for Fundación Lara Deportiva, against 1.29 over 52 for Petare FC.
-
Petare FC concede fewer
Fundación Lara Deportiva concede 1.00 a game, Petare FC 0.77.
-
Fundación Lara Deportiva games more often go over 2.5 goals
54% of Fundación Lara Deportiva matches, against 33% for Petare FC. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Petare FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1547.4
ELO
1585.4
57
ELO · Matches
52
1547.4
Current Team ELO
1585.4
1585.4
Current Opponent ELO
1547.4
-38.02
Current ELO Difference
38.02
0.45
Expected score
0.55
57
History Matches
52
0.04
Residual Mean
0.08
52.80
Overperformance
55.45
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
52
1.68
PPG
1.85
47.4%
Win rate
50.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
34.6%
26.3%
Loss rate
15.4%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
55.8%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
32.7%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.3%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
27
2.07
PPG
1.37
60.7%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
37.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
29.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.29
71.9%
Scoring rate
63.5%
50.9%
BTTS rate
36.5%
1.71
Goals for per game
0.85
75.0%
Scoring rate
48.1%
42.9%
BTTS rate
29.6%
1.74
Goals for per game
1.11
78.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
68.4%
BTTS rate
27.8%
57
History Matches
52
1.44
Goals Mean
1.29
1.24
Goals Std
1.35
71.9%
Scored 1+ rate
63.5%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.00
Goals against per game
0.77
68.4%
Conceding rate
51.9%
0.71
Goals against per game
0.89
53.6%
Conceding rate
59.3%
1.11
Goals against per game
0.72
78.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
57
History Matches
52
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.77
1.01
Conceded Std
0.89
19.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.2%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.8%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
0.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
48.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
52
0.96
Result entropy
0.91
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.41
3.83
Stability score
8.82
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
52
20
Lead Matches
18
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.93
12
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.19
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.10
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals 170
19
Matches
18
1.84
PPG
1.89
52.6%
Win rate
55.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
21.1%
Loss rate
22.2%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
19
Current Competition Matches
18
1.84
Current Competition PPG
1.89
0.63
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.39
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.51
Portability PPG Range
0.23
73.22
Portability Score
82.31
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-38.02
PPG-0.16
GF0.15
GA0.23
PPG-0.05
PPG0.70
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate8.5%
Scored 2+ rate10.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate0.1%
Conceded 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.54
History Matches5
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.32
Stability score-4.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.24
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-9.09
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-38.02
Current Opponent ELO38.02
Current ELO Difference-76.03
Expected score-0.11
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Fundación Lara Deportiva
D
Yaracuyanos FC1–1Fundación Lara Deportiva14 Oct · away
Pick: Yaracuyanos FC 47% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Petare FC
L
Mineros de Guyana3–2Petare FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Petare FC 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Fundación Lara Deportiva and Petare FC meet in Segunda División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fundación Lara Deportiva win 47.3%, draw 28.2%, Petare FC win 24.4%. The pick is Fundación Lara Deportiva win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.4%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.