ScoreProb
Premier League Wales Round 16 2026

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United

GAP Connah S Quay FC Home · Elo 1,617
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Flint Town United Away · Elo 1,488
Essity Stadium, Flint Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC win
GAP Connah S Quay FC winPick
67.7%
Draw
17.2%
Flint Town United win
15.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.1%
Under 2.530.9%

How much we know

GAP Connah S Quay FC history58 matches
Flint Town United history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • GAP Connah S Quay FC are rated 128 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,617 against 1,488. On rating alone GAP Connah S Quay FC would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • GAP Connah S Quay FC score more

    1.97 goals a game over 58 matches for GAP Connah S Quay FC, against 1.70 over 57 for Flint Town United.

  • GAP Connah S Quay FC concede fewer

    GAP Connah S Quay FC concede 1.19 a game, Flint Town United 1.77.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of GAP Connah S Quay FC matches, against 68% for Flint Town United. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Flint Town United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1616.8
ELO
1488.5
58
ELO · Matches
57
1616.8
Current Team ELO
1488.5
1488.5
Current Opponent ELO
1616.8
128.3
Current ELO Difference
-128.3
0.68
Expected score
0.32
58
History Matches
57
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.73
Overperformance
49.61
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
57
1.76
PPG
1.35
51.7%
Win rate
36.8%
20.7%
Draw rate
24.6%
27.6%
Loss rate
38.6%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.7%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.9%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.73
PPG
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
23.1%
Draw rate
29.6%
26.9%
Loss rate
37.0%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.97
Goals for per game
1.70
86.2%
Scoring rate
71.9%
58.6%
BTTS rate
56.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.63
88.5%
Scoring rate
74.1%
65.4%
BTTS rate
63.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
57
1.97
Goals Mean
1.70
1.59
Goals Std
1.47
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
53.4%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
34.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.77
67.2%
Conceding rate
75.4%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.89
73.1%
Conceding rate
77.8%
0.75
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
57
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.15
Conceded Std
1.50
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.1%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.6%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
57
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
2.16
Goal Difference Std
2.12
6.95
Stability score
1.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
57
26
Lead Matches
21
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.76
12
Trailing Matches
14
33.3%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.35
Rest days
77.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
23
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
31
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
0.00
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.89
1.25
Portability PPG Range
2.17
54.40
Portability Score
36.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO128.3
PPG0.41
GF0.26
GA-0.58
PPG2.25
PPG0.43
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score5.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.06
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate9.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate26.2%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.47
Portability PPG Range-0.92
Portability Score18.31
Rest days-0.70
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO128.3
Current Opponent ELO-128.3
Current ELO Difference256.7
Expected score0.35
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

GAP Connah S Quay FC

D
The New Saints0–0GAP Connah S Quay FC31 Oct · away
Pick: The New Saints 53% · missed
W
GAP Connah S Quay FC2–0Llandudno24 Oct · home
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 51% · hit
W
GAP Connah S Quay FC4–0Porthmadog16 Oct · home
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 72% · hit
W
Flint Town United1–2GAP Connah S Quay FC31 Aug · away
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Flint Town United

W
Flint Town United5–0Holywell30 Oct · home
Pick: Flint Town United 59% · hit
W
Trefelin0–2Flint Town United23 Oct · away
Pick: Flint Town United 44% · hit
L
Flint Town United1–3Caernarfon Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Caernarfon Town 42% · hit
L
Flint Town United1–2GAP Connah S Quay FC31 Aug · home
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Flint Town United meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Essity Stadium, Flint. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: GAP Connah S Quay FC win 67.7%, draw 17.2%, Flint Town United win 15.1%. The pick is GAP Connah S Quay FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.1%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.