ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa

Gaziantep FK Home · Elo 1,507
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kasımpaşa Away · Elo 1,530
Gaziantep Stadyumu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gaziantep FK win
Gaziantep FK winPick
38.2%
Draw
28.4%
Kasımpaşa win
33.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Gaziantep FK history64 matches
Kasımpaşa history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Gaziantep FK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,507 against 1,530. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 64 matches for Gaziantep FK, against 1.33 over 64 for Kasımpaşa.

  • Defences are close

    Gaziantep FK concede 1.55 a game, Kasımpaşa 1.47.

  • Gaziantep FK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Gaziantep FK matches, against 50% for Kasımpaşa. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gaziantep FK
Kasımpaşa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.6
ELO
1530.1
64
ELO · Matches
64
1506.6
Current Team ELO
1530.1
1530.1
Current Opponent ELO
1506.6
-23.51
Current ELO Difference
23.51
0.47
Expected score
0.53
64
History Matches
64
0.00
Residual Mean
0.03
50.22
Overperformance
52.62
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
64
1.28
PPG
1.27
34.4%
Win rate
32.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
28.1%
40.6%
Loss rate
39.1%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.6%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
29
1.32
PPG
1.03
35.5%
Win rate
27.6%
25.8%
Draw rate
20.7%
38.7%
Loss rate
51.7%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
59.4%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.24
77.4%
Scoring rate
72.4%
61.3%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.33
Goals Mean
1.33
1.09
Goals Std
1.16
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.9%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.47
79.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.52
Goals against per game
1.66
83.9%
Conceding rate
79.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.26
Conceded Std
1.22
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
64
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.58
1.73
Stability score
0.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
61
15
Lead Matches
16
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.92
23
Trailing Matches
23
21.7%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
36
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
25
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.41
Portability PPG Range
1.40
46.10
Portability Score
46.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.51
PPG0.02
GF0.00
GA0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.29
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate1.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-0.02
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-23.51
Current Opponent ELO23.51
Current ELO Difference-47.03
Expected score-0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gaziantep FK

L
Trabzonspor2–0Gaziantep FK1 Nov · away
Pick: Trabzonspor 50% · hit
W
Etimesgut SK0–4Gaziantep FK27 Oct · away
Pick: Etimesgut SK 39% · missed
L
Gaziantep FK1–3Erzurumspor FK24 Oct · home
Pick: Gaziantep FK 46% · missed
L
Başakşehir2–1Gaziantep FK18 Oct · away
Pick: Başakşehir 49% · hit
L
Gaziantep FK1–2Rizespor29 Aug · home
Pick: Gaziantep FK 45% · missed

Kasımpaşa

D
Kasımpaşa2–2Beşiktaş1 Nov · home
Pick: Kasımpaşa 39% · missed
W
Kasımpaşa3–1Çorluspor 194729 Oct · home
Pick: Kasımpaşa 52% · hit
W
Eyüpspor0–1Kasımpaşa24 Oct · away
Pick: Kasımpaşa 45% · hit
W
Kasımpaşa4–1Samsunspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Samsunspor 43% · missed
D
Başakşehir1–1Kasımpaşa30 Aug · away
Pick: Başakşehir 47% · missed

About this match

Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa meet in Süper Lig on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Gaziantep Stadyumu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Gaziantep FK win 38.2%, draw 28.4%, Kasımpaşa win 33.4%. The pick is Gaziantep FK win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.