ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Göztepe vs Başakşehir

Göztepe Home · Elo 1,592
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Başakşehir Away · Elo 1,594
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Başakşehir win
Göztepe win
33.5%
Draw
25.6%
Başakşehir winPick
41.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.5%
Under 2.550.5%

How much we know

Göztepe history66 matches
Başakşehir history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Başakşehir are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,592 against 1,594. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Başakşehir score more

    1.36 goals a game over 66 matches for Göztepe, against 1.63 over 73 for Başakşehir.

  • Defences are close

    Göztepe concede 1.11 a game, Başakşehir 1.21.

  • Başakşehir games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Göztepe matches, against 58% for Başakşehir. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Göztepe
Başakşehir
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1592.4
ELO
1593.6
66
ELO · Matches
73
1592.4
Current Team ELO
1593.6
1593.6
Current Opponent ELO
1592.4
-1.23
Current ELO Difference
1.23
0.50
Expected score
0.50
66
History Matches
73
0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
54.65
Overperformance
54.69
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
73
1.56
PPG
1.62
40.9%
Win rate
46.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.9%
25.8%
Loss rate
31.5%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
38
1.63
PPG
1.58
40.0%
Win rate
47.4%
43.3%
Draw rate
15.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
36.8%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
30
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.63
74.2%
Scoring rate
82.2%
53.0%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.47
76.7%
Scoring rate
76.3%
56.7%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
73
1.36
Goals Mean
1.63
1.11
Goals Std
1.24
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
46.6%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.21
68.2%
Conceding rate
67.1%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.24
66.7%
Conceding rate
68.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
66
History Matches
73
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.16
Conceded Std
1.17
22.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.5%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
73
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.82
1.58
Stability score
4.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
73
25
Lead Matches
25
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
11
Trailing Matches
17
36.4%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.08
1.77
Portability PPG Range
0.18
42.82
Portability Score
86.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.23
PPG-0.06
GF-0.27
GA-0.10
PPG-1.00
PPG0.05
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-2.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.20
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate24.6%
Trailing Win Rate12.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.59
Portability PPG Range1.60
Portability Score-43.78
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO-1.23
Current Opponent ELO1.23
Current ELO Difference-2.47
Expected score0.00
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Göztepe

W
Fenerbahçe1–2Göztepe31 Oct · away
Pick: Fenerbahçe 59% · missed
W
Göztepe2–0Çorum FK25 Oct · home
Pick: Göztepe 45% · hit
W
Kocaelispor1–2Göztepe18 Oct · away
Pick: Kocaelispor 41% · missed
W
Eyüpspor0–4Göztepe12 Oct · away
Pick: Göztepe 46% · hit
L
Galatasaray3–2Göztepe29 Aug · away
Pick: Galatasaray 60% · hit

Başakşehir

W
Başakşehir5–2Samsunspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Başakşehir 37% · hit
L
Beşiktaş2–0Başakşehir26 Oct · away
Pick: Beşiktaş 42% · hit
W
Başakşehir2–1Gaziantep FK18 Oct · home
Pick: Başakşehir 49% · hit
D
Başakşehir1–1Kasımpaşa30 Aug · home
Pick: Başakşehir 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Göztepe and Başakşehir meet in Süper Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Göztepe win 33.5%, draw 25.6%, Başakşehir win 41.0%. The pick is Başakşehir win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.5%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.