ScoreProb
Ettan - Norra Sweden Norra - 30 2026

Gefle IF vs Karlberg

Gefle IF Home · Elo 1,478
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karlberg Away · Elo 1,534
Gavlevallen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karlberg win
Gefle IF win
36.7%
Draw
21.0%
Karlberg winPick
42.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%

How much we know

Gefle IF history66 matches
Karlberg history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Karlberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Karlberg are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,478. On rating alone Karlberg would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Karlberg score more

    1.36 goals a game over 66 matches for Gefle IF, against 1.69 over 65 for Karlberg.

  • Karlberg concede fewer

    Gefle IF concede 1.74 a game, Karlberg 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Gefle IF matches, against 60% for Karlberg. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gefle IF
Karlberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.7
ELO
1533.9
66
ELO · Matches
65
1477.7
Current Team ELO
1533.9
1533.9
Current Opponent ELO
1477.7
-56.13
Current ELO Difference
56.13
0.42
Expected score
0.58
66
History Matches
65
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.70
Overperformance
51.90
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
65
1.14
PPG
1.46
31.8%
Win rate
41.5%
18.2%
Draw rate
21.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
36.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.1%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
1.44
PPG
1.61
40.6%
Win rate
48.5%
21.9%
Draw rate
15.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
36.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.69
66.7%
Scoring rate
84.6%
51.5%
BTTS rate
66.2%
1.91
Goals for per game
1.79
78.1%
Scoring rate
90.9%
62.5%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.56
61.1%
Scoring rate
83.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.1%
66
History Matches
65
1.36
Goals Mean
1.69
1.54
Goals Std
1.20
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.8%
13.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
1.51
81.8%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.53
Goals against per game
1.36
81.3%
Conceding rate
69.7%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.56
83.3%
Conceding rate
72.2%
66
History Matches
65
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.29
Conceded Std
1.15
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.7%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.1%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
65
0.93
Result entropy
0.97
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.66
7.07
Stability score
3.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
62
20
Lead Matches
28
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.88
24
Trailing Matches
15
20.8%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.28
PPG
1.33
38.9%
Win rate
38.9%
11.1%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.28
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.90
47.96
Portability Score
60.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-56.13
PPG-0.33
GF-0.33
GA0.23
PPG-0.06
PPG-0.17
PPG0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate17.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate12.8%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.54
Stability score3.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate1.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-12.62
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Current Team ELO-56.13
Current Opponent ELO56.13
Current ELO Difference-112.3
Expected score-0.16
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gefle IF

W
Hammarby Talang0–2Gefle IF1 Nov · away
Pick: Hammarby Talang 63% · missed
W
Gefle IF1–0FBK Karlstad24 Oct · home
Pick: Gefle IF 40% · hit
D
Stockholm Internazionale1–1Gefle IF17 Oct · away
Pick: Stockholm Internazionale 67% · missed
D
Gefle IF2–2IF Karlstad29 Aug · home
Pick: IF Karlstad 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Karlberg

W
Karlberg2–0Assyriska FF1 Nov · home
Pick: Karlberg 47% · hit
D
Karlberg1–1Umeå FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Karlberg 53% · missed
L
FBK Karlstad3–1Karlberg17 Oct · away
Pick: FBK Karlstad 40% · hit
D
Hammarby Talang0–0Karlberg31 Aug · away
Pick: Hammarby Talang 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gefle IF and Karlberg meet in Ettan - Norra on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Gavlevallen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gefle IF win 36.7%, draw 21.0%, Karlberg win 42.3%. The pick is Karlberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.