ScoreProb
Ettan - Norra Sweden Norra - 30 2026

Assyriska FF vs Hammarby Talang

Assyriska FF Home · Elo 1,485
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hammarby Talang Away · Elo 1,612
Sodertalje Fotbollsarena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hammarby Talang win
Assyriska FF win
27.7%
Draw
22.4%
Hammarby Talang winPick
49.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Assyriska FF history61 matches
Hammarby Talang history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hammarby Talang are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hammarby Talang are rated 127 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,485. On rating alone Hammarby Talang would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Hammarby Talang score more

    1.57 goals a game over 61 matches for Assyriska FF, against 2.05 over 55 for Hammarby Talang.

  • Hammarby Talang concede fewer

    Assyriska FF concede 1.49 a game, Hammarby Talang 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Assyriska FF matches, against 55% for Hammarby Talang. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Assyriska FF
Hammarby Talang
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.7
ELO
1612.1
61
ELO · Matches
55
1484.7
Current Team ELO
1612.1
1612.1
Current Opponent ELO
1484.7
-127.4
Current ELO Difference
127.4
0.32
Expected score
0.68
61
History Matches
55
0.00
Residual Mean
0.10
49.71
Overperformance
57.16
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
2.30
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.15
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
55
1.30
PPG
1.95
36.1%
Win rate
56.4%
21.3%
Draw rate
25.5%
42.6%
Loss rate
18.2%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.5%
62.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
28
1.45
PPG
1.86
42.4%
Win rate
53.6%
18.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
39.4%
Loss rate
21.4%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
75.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
2.05
77.0%
Scoring rate
85.5%
59.0%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.86
84.8%
Scoring rate
78.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.50
72.2%
Scoring rate
94.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
61
History Matches
55
1.57
Goals Mean
2.05
1.48
Goals Std
1.54
77.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
44.3%
Scored 2+ rate
56.4%
23.0%
Scored 3+ rate
34.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
0.98
75.4%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.04
78.8%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.72
Goals against per game
0.83
66.7%
Conceding rate
61.1%
61
History Matches
55
1.49
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.25
Conceded Std
0.84
42.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.6%
23.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.5%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
55
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.95
3.45
Stability score
10.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
54
25
Lead Matches
24
64.0%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.94
22
Trailing Matches
12
22.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
37
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.92
22
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.28
PPG
2.06
33.3%
Win rate
61.1%
27.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
38.9%
Loss rate
16.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.28
Current Competition PPG
2.06
-0.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.30
Portability PPG Range
1.10
80.23
Portability Score
49.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-127.4
PPG-0.65
GF-0.48
GA0.51
PPG-0.78
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate17.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches6
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-7.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.81
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.78
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.72
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.39
Portability PPG Range-0.80
Portability Score30.69
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Current Team ELO-127.4
Current Opponent ELO127.4
Current ELO Difference-254.7
Expected score-0.35
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Assyriska FF

L
Karlberg2–0Assyriska FF1 Nov · away
Pick: Karlberg 47% · hit
L
Assyriska FF1–3Arlanda25 Oct · home
Pick: Assyriska FF 40% · missed
L
Umeå FC3–1Assyriska FF18 Oct · away
Pick: Assyriska FF 41% · missed
W
Järfälla0–2Assyriska FF29 Aug · away
Pick: Assyriska FF 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hammarby Talang

L
Hammarby Talang0–2Gefle IF1 Nov · home
Pick: Hammarby Talang 63% · missed
D
Järfälla2–2Hammarby Talang23 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby Talang 64% · missed
W
Hammarby Talang2–1IF Karlstad18 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby Talang 50% · hit
L
Umeå FC2–1Hammarby Talang4 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby Talang 64% · missed
D
Hammarby Talang0–0Karlberg31 Aug · home
Pick: Hammarby Talang 56% · missed

About this match

Assyriska FF and Hammarby Talang meet in Ettan - Norra on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Assyriska FF win 27.7%, draw 22.4%, Hammarby Talang win 49.9%. The pick is Hammarby Talang win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.