ScoreProb
Ettan - Norra Sweden Norra - 30 2026

IF Karlstad vs Umeå FC

IF Karlstad Home · Elo 1,554
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Umeå FC Away · Elo 1,415
Sola Arena, Karlstad Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: IF Karlstad win
IF Karlstad winPick
62.4%
Draw
19.7%
Umeå FC win
18.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%

How much we know

IF Karlstad history62 matches
Umeå FC history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why IF Karlstad are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • IF Karlstad are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,415. On rating alone IF Karlstad would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • IF Karlstad score more

    1.79 goals a game over 62 matches for IF Karlstad, against 1.23 over 61 for Umeå FC.

  • IF Karlstad concede fewer

    IF Karlstad concede 1.23 a game, Umeå FC 1.69.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of IF Karlstad matches, against 52% for Umeå FC. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
IF Karlstad
Umeå FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.0
ELO
1415.1
62
ELO · Matches
61
1554.0
Current Team ELO
1415.1
1415.1
Current Opponent ELO
1554.0
139.0
Current ELO Difference
-139.0
0.69
Expected score
0.31
62
History Matches
61
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
53.31
Overperformance
45.34
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
1.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
61
1.73
PPG
0.87
51.6%
Win rate
21.3%
17.7%
Draw rate
23.0%
30.6%
Loss rate
55.7%
79.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
33.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
29
1.75
PPG
0.79
53.1%
Win rate
20.7%
15.6%
Draw rate
17.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
62.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
32
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.79
Goals for per game
1.23
79.0%
Scoring rate
63.9%
56.5%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.66
Goals for per game
1.17
75.0%
Scoring rate
65.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.17
72.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
38.9%
BTTS rate
61.1%
62
History Matches
61
1.79
Goals Mean
1.23
1.51
Goals Std
1.46
79.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.9%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.1%
27.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.5%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.69
72.6%
Conceding rate
86.9%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.90
68.8%
Conceding rate
93.1%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.67
55.6%
Conceding rate
88.9%
62
History Matches
61
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.04
Conceded Std
1.11
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.5%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.0%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.1%
21.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.1%
21.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
61
0.92
Result entropy
0.90
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.91
8.01
Stability score
9.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
61
24
Lead Matches
12
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
41.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.58
15
Trailing Matches
26
20.0%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
37
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.76
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
2.00
PPG
0.94
61.1%
Win rate
22.2%
16.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
18
Current Competition Matches
18
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.94
0.78
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.12
50.08
Portability Score
54.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO139.0
PPG0.86
GF0.56
GA-0.46
PPG1.06
PPG0.96
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate24.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate15.1%
Scored 2+ rate18.9%
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-1.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate41.7%
Lead Points Retention0.31
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate4.6%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.28
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-4.74
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.86
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO139.0
Current Opponent ELO-139.0
Current ELO Difference278.0
Expected score0.38
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

IF Karlstad

L
Vasalund2–1IF Karlstad1 Nov · away
Pick: IF Karlstad 47% · missed
L
IF Karlstad1–4Stockholm Internazionale24 Oct · home
Pick: IF Karlstad 39% · missed
L
Hammarby Talang2–1IF Karlstad18 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby Talang 50% · hit
D
Gefle IF2–2IF Karlstad29 Aug · away
Pick: IF Karlstad 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Umeå FC

W
Umeå FC3–0Sollentuna1 Nov · home
Pick: Umeå FC 44% · hit
D
Karlberg1–1Umeå FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Karlberg 53% · missed
W
Umeå FC3–1Assyriska FF18 Oct · home
Pick: Assyriska FF 41% · missed
W
Umeå FC2–1Hammarby Talang4 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby Talang 64% · missed
W
Umeå FC3–2Vasalund30 Aug · home
Pick: Umeå FC 43% · hit

About this match

IF Karlstad and Umeå FC meet in Ettan - Norra on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sola Arena, Karlstad. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: IF Karlstad win 62.4%, draw 19.7%, Umeå FC win 18.0%. The pick is IF Karlstad win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.