ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niedersachsen Germany Niedersachsen - 14 2026

Germania Egestorf vs Drochtersen/Assel II

Germania Egestorf Home · Elo 1,524
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Drochtersen/Assel II Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Germania Egestorf win
Germania Egestorf winPick
53.9%
Draw
17.9%
Drochtersen/Assel II win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

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Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.1%
Under 2.532.9%

How much we know

Germania Egestorf history52 matches
Drochtersen/Assel II history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Germania Egestorf are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Germania Egestorf are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,491. On rating alone Germania Egestorf would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Germania Egestorf score more

    1.60 goals a game over 52 matches for Germania Egestorf, against 1.33 over 3 for Drochtersen/Assel II.

  • Germania Egestorf concede fewer

    Germania Egestorf concede 1.33 a game, Drochtersen/Assel II 1.67.

  • Drochtersen/Assel II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Germania Egestorf matches, against 67% for Drochtersen/Assel II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Germania Egestorf
Drochtersen/Assel II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.1
ELO
1491.3
52
ELO · Matches
3
1524.1
Current Team ELO
1491.3
1491.3
Current Opponent ELO
1524.1
32.82
Current ELO Difference
-32.82
0.55
Expected score
0.45
52
History Matches
3
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.18
51.37
Overperformance
47.70
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
0.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
2.40
Goals against per game
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
1.10
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.33
1.90
Goals against per game
1.67
30.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.67
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.47
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
3
1.52
PPG
1.00
42.3%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
42.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
2
1.60
PPG
0.00
48.0%
Win rate
0.0%
16.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
25
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.33
78.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.56
Goals for per game
0.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
3
1.60
Goals Mean
1.33
1.33
Goals Std
1.25
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.67
61.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.24
Goals against per game
2.00
56.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
3
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.34
Conceded Std
0.47
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
3
0.98
Result entropy
0.58
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.70
2.06
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
3
15
Lead Matches
1
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
1.00
12
Trailing Matches
1
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
19
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
5
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.78
Portability PPG Std
—
1.97
Portability PPG Range
—
39.21
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.82
PPG0.52
GF0.26
GA-0.34
PPG-0.67
PPG1.60
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches49
Clean-sheet rate38.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate44.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches49
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate12.2%
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches49
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std0.87
Clean-sheet rate38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate19.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.75
History Matches49
Result entropy0.40
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-40.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches49
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches49
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.60
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches30
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches19
Current Team ELO32.82
Current Opponent ELO-32.82
Current ELO Difference65.65
Expected score0.09
History Matches49
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance3.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Germania Egestorf

L
Verden 043–0Germania Egestorf1 Nov · away
Pick: Verden 04 49% · hit
D
Nordhorn2–2Germania Egestorf18 Oct · away
Pick: Nordhorn 36% · missed
D
Lüneburger SK Hansa2–2Germania Egestorf30 Aug · away
Pick: Lüneburger SK Hansa 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Drochtersen/Assel II

W
Drochtersen/Assel II2–1Bersenbrück1 Nov · home
Pick: Drochtersen/Assel II 42% · hit
D
Meppen II2–2Drochtersen/Assel II25 Oct · away
Pick: Meppen II 52% · missed
L
Drochtersen/Assel II2–3Eintracht Braunschw. II18 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Braunschw. II 44% · hit
L
Drochtersen/Assel II1–2Hemmingen29 Aug · home
Pick: Drochtersen/Assel II 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Germania Egestorf and Drochtersen/Assel II meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Germania Egestorf win 53.9%, draw 17.9%, Drochtersen/Assel II win 28.3%. The pick is Germania Egestorf win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.1%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.