ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niedersachsen Germany Niedersachsen - 14 2026

Bersenbrück vs Borussia Hildesheim

Bersenbrück Home · Elo 1,502
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Borussia Hildesheim Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bersenbrück win
Bersenbrück winPick
58.4%
Draw
17.0%
Borussia Hildesheim win
24.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.4%
Under 2.527.6%

How much we know

Bersenbrück history51 matches
Borussia Hildesheim history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bersenbrück are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,502 against 1,477. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Bersenbrück score more

    2.00 goals a game over 51 matches for Bersenbrück, against 1.47 over 53 for Borussia Hildesheim.

  • Borussia Hildesheim concede fewer

    Bersenbrück concede 2.14 a game, Borussia Hildesheim 1.91.

  • Bersenbrück games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Bersenbrück matches, against 66% for Borussia Hildesheim. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bersenbrück
Borussia Hildesheim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.9
ELO
1477.3
51
ELO · Matches
53
1501.9
Current Team ELO
1477.3
1477.3
Current Opponent ELO
1501.9
24.67
Current ELO Difference
-24.67
0.54
Expected score
0.46
51
History Matches
53
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.21
Overperformance
48.58
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
2.50
Goals against per game
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.86
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
53
1.45
PPG
1.34
39.2%
Win rate
39.6%
27.5%
Draw rate
15.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
45.3%
92.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
80.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
58.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.88
PPG
1.15
53.8%
Win rate
34.6%
26.9%
Draw rate
11.5%
19.2%
Loss rate
53.8%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
57.7%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.63
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.47
84.3%
Scoring rate
71.7%
76.5%
BTTS rate
58.5%
2.27
Goals for per game
1.42
92.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
76.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.67
0.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
51
History Matches
53
2.00
Goals Mean
1.47
1.41
Goals Std
1.30
84.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
58.8%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
2.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.14
Goals against per game
1.91
88.2%
Conceding rate
84.9%
1.77
Goals against per game
2.35
80.8%
Conceding rate
88.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
51
History Matches
53
2.14
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.47
Conceded Std
1.55
60.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
41.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
1.77
Venue Conceded Mean
2.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
53
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.33
0.95
Stability score
7.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
52
17
Lead Matches
12
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
21
35.3%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
5
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
27
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.87
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.91
Portability PPG Range
0.84
55.46
Portability Score
62.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO24.67
PPG0.11
GF0.53
GA0.23
PPG-0.50
PPG0.73
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate13.5%
Scored 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-7.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.87
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.35
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate16.2%
Trailing Win Rate3.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-6.63
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO24.67
Current Opponent ELO-24.67
Current ELO Difference49.35
Expected score0.07
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bersenbrück

L
Drochtersen/Assel II2–1Bersenbrück1 Nov · away
Pick: Drochtersen/Assel II 42% · hit
L
Spelle-Venhaus4–0Bersenbrück28 Oct · away
Pick: Spelle-Venhaus 56% · hit
L
Bersenbrück0–4Verden 0423 Oct · home
Pick: Bersenbrück 42% · missed
W
Vorsfelde1–3Bersenbrück18 Oct · away
Pick: Vorsfelde 42% · missed
L
Heeslinger SC4–0Bersenbrück30 Aug · away
Pick: Heeslinger SC 59% · hit

Borussia Hildesheim

L
Borussia Hildesheim3–5Meppen II31 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Hildesheim 39% · missed
L
Eintracht Braunschw. II2–0Borussia Hildesheim23 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Braunschw. II 61% · hit
D
Borussia Hildesheim0–0Heeslinger SC18 Oct · home
Pick: Heeslinger SC 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bersenbrück and Borussia Hildesheim meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bersenbrück win 58.4%, draw 17.0%, Borussia Hildesheim win 24.6%. The pick is Bersenbrück win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.4%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.