ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niedersachsen Germany Niedersachsen - 14 2026

Meppen II vs BW Lohne

Meppen II Home · Elo 1,501
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
BW Lohne Away · Elo 1,423
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BW Lohne win
Meppen II win
32.2%
Draw
21.3%
BW Lohne winPick
46.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

Meppen II history48 matches
BW Lohne history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why BW Lohne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Meppen II are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,423. On rating alone Meppen II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.58 goals a game over 48 matches for Meppen II, against 1.43 over 58 for BW Lohne.

  • Meppen II concede fewer

    Meppen II concede 1.42 a game, BW Lohne 2.03.

  • BW Lohne games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Meppen II matches, against 66% for BW Lohne. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Meppen II
BW Lohne
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.5
ELO
1423.1
48
ELO · Matches
58
1500.5
Current Team ELO
1423.1
1423.1
Current Opponent ELO
1500.5
77.39
Current ELO Difference
-77.39
0.61
Expected score
0.39
48
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.06
50.21
Overperformance
45.70
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.60
Goals against per game
2.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
2.30
Goals against per game
2.60
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
58
1.48
PPG
0.98
39.6%
Win rate
24.1%
29.2%
Draw rate
25.9%
31.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
47.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.44
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
25.9%
24.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
36.0%
Loss rate
51.9%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
96.3%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.43
81.3%
Scoring rate
69.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.56
80.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
64.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
58
1.58
Goals Mean
1.43
1.22
Goals Std
1.45
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
47.9%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
24.1%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
2.03
79.2%
Conceding rate
84.5%
1.52
Goals against per game
2.33
84.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
48
History Matches
58
1.42
Conceded Mean
2.03
1.19
Conceded Std
1.45
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.6%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.9%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
2.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.5%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.5%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.71
Goal Difference Std
2.11
0.81
Stability score
5.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
56
17
Lead Matches
13
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.79
11
Trailing Matches
23
27.3%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
26
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
21
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.36
Portability PPG Range
1.66
45.18
Portability Score
47.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO77.39
PPG0.50
GF0.15
GA-0.62
PPG-1.00
PPG0.44
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate12.3%
Scored 2+ rate11.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score-4.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate7.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate5.5%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score-2.30
Rest days0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO77.39
Current Opponent ELO-77.39
Current ELO Difference154.8
Expected score0.22
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Meppen II

W
Borussia Hildesheim3–5Meppen II31 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Hildesheim 39% · missed
D
Meppen II2–2Drochtersen/Assel II25 Oct · home
Pick: Meppen II 52% · missed
W
Verden 041–2Meppen II18 Oct · away
Pick: Verden 04 48% · missed
W
Nordhorn1–3Meppen II4 Oct · away
Pick: Nordhorn 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

BW Lohne

W
BW Lohne3–0Eintracht Braunschw. II30 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Braunschw. II 41% · missed
D
Heeslinger SC1–1BW Lohne25 Oct · away
Pick: Heeslinger SC 54% · missed
W
BW Lohne3–1Lüneburger SK Hansa17 Oct · home
Pick: BW Lohne 54% · hit
W
BW Lohne3–1Vorsfelde29 Aug · home
Pick: BW Lohne 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Meppen II and BW Lohne meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Meppen II win 32.2%, draw 21.3%, BW Lohne win 46.4%. The pick is BW Lohne win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.