ScoreProb
Oberliga - Niedersachsen Germany Niedersachsen - 14 2026

Heeslinger SC vs Wilhelmshaven

Heeslinger SC Home · Elo 1,567
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wilhelmshaven Away · Elo 1,557
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Heeslinger SC win
Heeslinger SC winPick
43.5%
Draw
26.9%
Wilhelmshaven win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

Heeslinger SC history51 matches
Wilhelmshaven history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Heeslinger SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,567 against 1,557. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Heeslinger SC score more

    2.14 goals a game over 51 matches for Heeslinger SC, against 1.59 over 49 for Wilhelmshaven.

  • Wilhelmshaven concede fewer

    Heeslinger SC concede 1.55 a game, Wilhelmshaven 1.27.

  • Heeslinger SC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Heeslinger SC matches, against 51% for Wilhelmshaven. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Heeslinger SC
Wilhelmshaven
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.4
ELO
1557.5
51
ELO · Matches
49
1567.4
Current Team ELO
1557.5
1557.5
Current Opponent ELO
1567.4
9.95
Current ELO Difference
-9.95
0.51
Expected score
0.49
51
History Matches
49
0.06
Residual Mean
0.07
54.24
Overperformance
54.97
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.90
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
49
1.71
PPG
1.73
51.0%
Win rate
53.1%
17.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
31.4%
Loss rate
32.7%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
74.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.0%
49.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
21
1.71
PPG
1.81
50.0%
Win rate
57.1%
20.8%
Draw rate
9.5%
29.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
91.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
24
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.14
Goals for per game
1.59
92.2%
Scoring rate
79.6%
68.6%
BTTS rate
44.9%
2.63
Goals for per game
1.67
95.8%
Scoring rate
76.2%
70.8%
BTTS rate
42.9%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
51
History Matches
49
2.14
Goals Mean
1.59
1.39
Goals Std
1.41
92.2%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
60.8%
Scored 2+ rate
51.0%
35.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
2.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.27
76.5%
Conceding rate
61.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.43
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
0.0%
51
History Matches
49
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.27
Conceded Std
1.40
49.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
7.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
7.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
4.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
49
0.92
Result entropy
0.89
1.96
Goal Difference Std
2.07
7.77
Stability score
10.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
48
18
Lead Matches
15
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.96
18
Trailing Matches
11
27.8%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
1.28
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.07
Portability PPG Range
1.47
53.43
Portability Score
43.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO9.95
PPG-0.03
GF0.55
GA0.28
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.10
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate23.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-3.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score9.82
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.82
Current Team ELO9.95
Current Opponent ELO-9.95
Current ELO Difference19.90
Expected score0.03
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Heeslinger SC

W
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden1–3Heeslinger SC30 Oct · away
Pick: Heeslinger SC 44% · hit
D
Heeslinger SC1–1BW Lohne25 Oct · home
Pick: Heeslinger SC 54% · missed
D
Borussia Hildesheim0–0Heeslinger SC18 Oct · away
Pick: Heeslinger SC 53% · missed
W
Heeslinger SC4–0Bersenbrück30 Aug · home
Pick: Heeslinger SC 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wilhelmshaven

W
Wilhelmshaven1–0Lüneburger SK Hansa1 Nov · home
Pick: Wilhelmshaven 61% · hit
W
Wilhelmshaven3–2Hemmingen24 Oct · home
Pick: Wilhelmshaven 82% · hit
D
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden1–1Wilhelmshaven16 Oct · away
Pick: Wilhelmshaven 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Heeslinger SC and Wilhelmshaven meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Heeslinger SC win 43.5%, draw 26.9%, Wilhelmshaven win 29.6%. The pick is Heeslinger SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.