ScoreProb
Superettan Sweden Round 30 2026

GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC

GIF Sundsvall Home · Elo 1,398
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Varbergs BoIS FC Away · Elo 1,576
NP3 Arena, Sundsvall Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Varbergs BoIS FC win
GIF Sundsvall win
19.3%
Draw
16.0%
Varbergs BoIS FC winPick
64.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

GIF Sundsvall history67 matches
Varbergs BoIS FC history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Varbergs BoIS FC are rated 178 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,398. On rating alone Varbergs BoIS FC would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Varbergs BoIS FC score more

    1.13 goals a game over 67 matches for GIF Sundsvall, against 1.64 over 70 for Varbergs BoIS FC.

  • Varbergs BoIS FC concede fewer

    GIF Sundsvall concede 1.57 a game, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of GIF Sundsvall matches, against 60% for Varbergs BoIS FC. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
GIF Sundsvall
Varbergs BoIS FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1397.6
ELO
1575.7
67
ELO · Matches
70
1397.6
Current Team ELO
1575.7
1575.7
Current Opponent ELO
1397.6
-178.1
Current ELO Difference
178.1
0.26
Expected score
0.74
67
History Matches
70
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.05
43.82
Overperformance
54.14
-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.10
PPG
1.60
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
70
1.16
PPG
1.64
34.3%
Win rate
47.1%
13.4%
Draw rate
22.9%
52.2%
Loss rate
30.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
35
1.03
PPG
1.37
28.1%
Win rate
37.1%
18.8%
Draw rate
25.7%
53.1%
Loss rate
37.1%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
32
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.64
68.7%
Scoring rate
81.4%
52.2%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.60
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.9%
65.6%
BTTS rate
65.7%
0.70
Goals for per game
1.75
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
45.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.13
Goals Mean
1.64
1.02
Goals Std
1.30
68.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.3%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
24.3%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.23
80.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.49
87.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.30
95.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.31
Conceded Std
1.04
43.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
5.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
70
0.89
Result entropy
0.96
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.74
11.17
Stability score
4.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
69
16
Lead Matches
27
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.77
24
Trailing Matches
17
20.8%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
42
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
26
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
0.50
PPG
1.70
15.0%
Win rate
50.0%
5.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
20
Current Competition Matches
20
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.70
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.45
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.68
1.81
Portability PPG Range
2.07
40.19
Portability Score
42.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-178.1
PPG-0.48
GF-0.51
GA0.34
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.34
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate12.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.06
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.54
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score7.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate10.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.95
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score-2.24
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.84
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO-178.1
Current Opponent ELO178.1
Current ELO Difference-356.2
Expected score-0.47
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-10.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

GIF Sundsvall

L
United Nordic4–2GIF Sundsvall31 Oct · away
Pick: United Nordic 69% · hit
L
Oddevold7–0GIF Sundsvall23 Oct · away
Pick: Oddevold 65% · hit
L
GIF Sundsvall0–1IFK Varnamo18 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Varnamo 48% · hit
L
IFK Norrkoping4–0GIF Sundsvall13 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 80% · hit
W
GIF Sundsvall1–0Norrby IF31 Aug · home
Pick: Norrby IF 52% · missed

Varbergs BoIS FC

D
Varbergs BoIS FC2–2Ljungskile SK1 Nov · home
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 55% · missed
D
Landskrona BoIS1–1Varbergs BoIS FC27 Oct · away
Pick: Landskrona BoIS 39% · missed
D
Varbergs BoIS FC0–0Helsingborg19 Oct · home
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 56% · missed
W
Varbergs BoIS FC3–1Oddevold30 Aug · home
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 48% · hit
L
Orebro SK2–1Varbergs BoIS FC25 Aug · away
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 42% · missed

About this match

GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC meet in Superettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at NP3 Arena, Sundsvall. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: GIF Sundsvall win 19.3%, draw 16.0%, Varbergs BoIS FC win 64.7%. The pick is Varbergs BoIS FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.