ScoreProb
Superettan Sweden Round 30 2026

IK brage vs Norrby IF

IK brage Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Norrby IF Away · Elo 1,540
Domnarvsvallen, Borlange Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: IK brage win
IK brage winPick
45.4%
Draw
22.3%
Norrby IF win
32.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.1%
Under 2.536.9%

How much we know

IK brage history67 matches
Norrby IF history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why IK brage are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Norrby IF are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,485. On rating alone Norrby IF would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Norrby IF score more

    1.58 goals a game over 67 matches for IK brage, against 1.80 over 61 for Norrby IF.

  • Norrby IF concede fewer

    IK brage concede 1.67 a game, Norrby IF 1.21.

  • IK brage games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of IK brage matches, against 56% for Norrby IF. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
IK brage
Norrby IF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.2
ELO
1540.1
67
ELO · Matches
61
1485.2
Current Team ELO
1540.1
1540.1
Current Opponent ELO
1485.2
-54.95
Current ELO Difference
54.95
0.42
Expected score
0.58
67
History Matches
61
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.61
Overperformance
52.85
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
61
1.33
PPG
1.66
35.8%
Win rate
44.3%
25.4%
Draw rate
32.8%
38.8%
Loss rate
23.0%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.7%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
28
1.39
PPG
1.39
38.7%
Win rate
35.7%
22.6%
Draw rate
32.1%
38.7%
Loss rate
32.1%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
71.0%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
31
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.80
77.6%
Scoring rate
85.2%
64.2%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.84
Goals for per game
1.43
83.9%
Scoring rate
78.6%
74.2%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
65.0%
BTTS rate
65.0%
67
History Matches
61
1.58
Goals Mean
1.80
1.22
Goals Std
1.27
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
85.2%
52.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
27.9%
1.84
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.21
82.1%
Conceding rate
77.0%
1.81
Goals against per game
1.21
87.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.90
Goals against per game
1.35
80.0%
Conceding rate
85.0%
67
History Matches
61
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.19
Conceded Std
0.89
55.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.9%
1.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
12.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
12.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.56
1.41
Stability score
3.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
61
14
Lead Matches
27
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
63.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.74
24
Trailing Matches
17
41.7%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
41
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.05
PPG
1.15
25.0%
Win rate
20.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
55.0%
45.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.05
Current Competition PPG
1.15
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.10
7
Competition Season Count
4
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.83
Portability PPG Std
0.43
2.67
Portability PPG Range
0.95
37.68
Portability Score
53.66
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.95
PPG-0.33
GF-0.22
GA0.46
PPG-0.10
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.46
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-1.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate8.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.10
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.72
Portability Score-15.98
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-54.95
Current Opponent ELO54.95
Current ELO Difference-109.9
Expected score-0.16
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

IK brage

L
Oddevold2–1IK brage30 Oct · away
Pick: Oddevold 54% · hit
L
IK brage4–5Osters IF24 Oct · home
Pick: IK brage 42% · missed
L
Ljungskile SK2–0IK brage17 Oct · away
Pick: Ljungskile SK 50% · hit
L
Falkenbergs FF4–1IK brage29 Aug · away
Pick: Falkenbergs FF 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Norrby IF

L
Norrby IF0–3IFK Varnamo31 Oct · home
Pick: Norrby IF 54% · missed
L
Norrby IF0–4IFK Norrkoping25 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 51% · hit
L
United Nordic2–1Norrby IF18 Oct · away
Pick: United Nordic 49% · hit
L
GIF Sundsvall1–0Norrby IF31 Aug · away
Pick: Norrby IF 52% · missed
W
Dalstorps0–2Norrby IF26 Aug · away
Pick: Norrby IF 37% · hit

About this match

IK brage and Norrby IF meet in Superettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Domnarvsvallen, Borlange. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: IK brage win 45.4%, draw 22.3%, Norrby IF win 32.2%. The pick is IK brage win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.1%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.