ScoreProb
Superettan Sweden Round 30 2026

Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF

Helsingborg Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Falkenbergs FF Away · Elo 1,589
Olympia, Helsingborg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Falkenbergs FF win
Helsingborg win
36.6%
Draw
23.2%
Falkenbergs FF winPick
40.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.5%
No40.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

Helsingborg history69 matches
Falkenbergs FF history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Falkenbergs FF are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Falkenbergs FF are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,470. On rating alone Falkenbergs FF would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Falkenbergs FF score more

    1.46 goals a game over 69 matches for Helsingborg, against 1.89 over 72 for Falkenbergs FF.

  • Falkenbergs FF concede fewer

    Helsingborg concede 1.64 a game, Falkenbergs FF 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Helsingborg matches, against 64% for Falkenbergs FF. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Helsingborg
Falkenbergs FF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.8
ELO
1588.9
69
ELO · Matches
72
1469.8
Current Team ELO
1588.9
1588.9
Current Opponent ELO
1469.8
-119.1
Current ELO Difference
119.1
0.34
Expected score
0.66
69
History Matches
72
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.17
Overperformance
54.66
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
2.10
1.90
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
72
1.26
PPG
1.75
34.8%
Win rate
50.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
81.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.3%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
36
1.42
PPG
1.42
39.5%
Win rate
38.9%
23.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
36.1%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
38
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.89
73.9%
Scoring rate
87.5%
58.0%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.66
Goals for per game
1.72
78.9%
Scoring rate
86.1%
63.2%
BTTS rate
69.4%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.85
85.0%
Scoring rate
95.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
72
1.46
Goals Mean
1.89
1.29
Goals Std
1.25
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
42.0%
Scored 2+ rate
59.7%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
26.4%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.19
78.3%
Conceding rate
65.3%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.61
76.3%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.45
90.0%
Conceding rate
85.0%
69
History Matches
72
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.27
Conceded Std
1.19
50.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.90
3.40
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
71
21
Lead Matches
29
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
21
Trailing Matches
18
19.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.01
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.13
Rest days
74.87
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
1.25
PPG
1.75
35.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
45.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
20
Current Competition Matches
20
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
6
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.43
Portability PPG Range
0.77
49.94
Portability Score
61.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-119.1
PPG-0.49
GF-0.43
GA0.44
PPG-0.50
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate13.6%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-1.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.66
Portability Score-11.97
Rest days1.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO-119.1
Current Opponent ELO119.1
Current ELO Difference-238.2
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Helsingborg

L
Osters IF3–0Helsingborg2 Nov · away
Pick: Osters IF 51% · hit
D
Helsingborg1–1Ljungskile SK25 Oct · home
Pick: Ljungskile SK 39% · missed
D
Varbergs BoIS FC0–0Helsingborg19 Oct · away
Pick: Varbergs BoIS FC 56% · missed
D
Helsingborg1–1Orebro SK1 Sep · home
Pick: Helsingborg 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Falkenbergs FF

W
Falkenbergs FF2–1Sandviken31 Oct · home
Pick: Falkenbergs FF 55% · hit
L
Orebro SK1–0Falkenbergs FF26 Oct · away
Pick: Orebro SK 40% · hit
W
Falkenbergs FF4–3Landskrona BoIS17 Oct · home
Pick: Falkenbergs FF 54% · hit
W
Falkenbergs FF4–1IK brage29 Aug · home
Pick: Falkenbergs FF 57% · hit
L
IFK Norrkoping2–1Falkenbergs FF24 Aug · away
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 53% · hit

About this match

Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF meet in Superettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Olympia, Helsingborg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Helsingborg win 36.6%, draw 23.2%, Falkenbergs FF win 40.1%. The pick is Falkenbergs FF win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 59.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.