ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia

Gimnasia M. Home · Elo 1,565
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Independ. Rivadavia Away · Elo 1,621
Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Independ. Rivadavia win
Gimnasia M. win
29.7%
Draw
30.1%
Independ. Rivadavia winPick
40.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.7%
No54.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.9%
Under 2.562.1%

How much we know

Gimnasia M. history54 matches
Independ. Rivadavia history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Independ. Rivadavia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Independ. Rivadavia are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,621 against 1,565. On rating alone Independ. Rivadavia would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Independ. Rivadavia score more

    1.04 goals a game over 54 matches for Gimnasia M., against 1.43 over 65 for Independ. Rivadavia.

  • Gimnasia M. concede fewer

    Gimnasia M. concede 0.80 a game, Independ. Rivadavia 0.92.

  • Independ. Rivadavia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    19% of Gimnasia M. matches, against 48% for Independ. Rivadavia. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1565.0
ELO
1621.2
54
ELO · Matches
65
1565.0
Current Team ELO
1621.2
1621.2
Current Opponent ELO
1565.0
-56.23
Current ELO Difference
56.23
0.42
Expected score
0.58
54
History Matches
65
0.06
Residual Mean
0.10
54.26
Overperformance
57.61
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.60
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
65
1.69
PPG
1.74
46.3%
Win rate
46.2%
29.6%
Draw rate
35.4%
24.1%
Loss rate
18.5%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
18.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
9.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.5%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
30
2.11
PPG
1.50
63.0%
Win rate
36.7%
22.2%
Draw rate
40.0%
14.8%
Loss rate
23.3%
55.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
25.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
27
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.04
Goals for per game
1.43
72.2%
Scoring rate
75.4%
37.0%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.30
85.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
70.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
45.0%
BTTS rate
63.6%
54
History Matches
65
1.04
Goals Mean
1.43
0.84
Goals Std
1.16
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
25.9%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.80
Goals against per game
0.92
55.6%
Conceding rate
64.6%
0.59
Goals against per game
0.97
48.1%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Conceding rate
72.7%
54
History Matches
65
0.80
Conceded Mean
0.92
0.99
Conceded Std
0.81
14.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.2%
3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.5%
0.59
Venue Conceded Mean
0.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
51.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
51.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
65
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.24
3.54
Stability score
5.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
65
15
Lead Matches
20
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.92
8
Trailing Matches
12
37.5%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.08
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
28
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
22
1.55
PPG
1.77
45.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
35.0%
Loss rate
22.7%
55.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
35.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
20
Current Competition Matches
22
1.55
Current Competition PPG
1.77
-0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.84
77.29
Portability Score
61.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-56.23
PPG-0.05
GF-0.39
GA-0.13
PPG-0.22
PPG0.61
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.70
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-2.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.64
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate4.2%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score15.56
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO-56.23
Current Opponent ELO56.23
Current ELO Difference-112.5
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gimnasia M.

D
Lanus1–1Gimnasia M.1 Nov · away
Pick: Lanus 46% · missed
L
Gimnasia M.1–2Platense23 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia M. 45% · missed
W
Gimnasia M.1–0Newells Old Boys12 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia M. 53% · hit
L
Estudiantes L.P.3–0Gimnasia M.5 Oct · away
Pick: Estudiantes L.P. 60% · hit
W
Independiente0–3Gimnasia M.30 Aug · away
Pick: Independiente 53% · missed

Independ. Rivadavia

W
Independ. Rivadavia3–1Banfield3 Nov · home
Pick: Independ. Rivadavia 58% · hit
L
Argentinos JRS1–0Independ. Rivadavia27 Oct · away
Pick: Argentinos JRS 38% · hit
W
Independ. Rivadavia3–1Racing Club31 Aug · home
Pick: Independ. Rivadavia 43% · hit
W
Aldosivi0–2Independ. Rivadavia26 Aug · away
Pick: Independ. Rivadavia 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gimnasia M. and Independ. Rivadavia meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Victor Legrotaglie, Mendoza. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gimnasia M. win 29.7%, draw 30.1%, Independ. Rivadavia win 40.2%. The pick is Independ. Rivadavia win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.9%. Both teams to score: 45.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.