ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Gretna 2008 vs Auchinleck Talbot

Gretna 2008 Home · Elo 1,366
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Auchinleck Talbot Away · Elo 1,553
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Auchinleck Talbot win
Gretna 2008 win
9.2%
Draw
7.3%
Auchinleck Talbot winPick
83.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.584.2%
Under 2.515.8%

How much we know

Gretna 2008 history50 matches
Auchinleck Talbot history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (83.4%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Auchinleck Talbot are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Auchinleck Talbot are rated 186 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,366. On rating alone Auchinleck Talbot would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Auchinleck Talbot score far more

    1.44 goals a game over 50 matches for Gretna 2008, against 2.91 over 11 for Auchinleck Talbot.

  • Auchinleck Talbot concede fewer

    Gretna 2008 concede 2.74 a game, Auchinleck Talbot 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    78% of Gretna 2008 matches, against 73% for Auchinleck Talbot. The model puts this match at 84% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gretna 2008
Auchinleck Talbot
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1366.4
ELO
1552.8
50
ELO · Matches
11
1366.4
Current Team ELO
1552.8
1552.8
Current Opponent ELO
1366.4
-186.4
Current ELO Difference
186.4
0.25
Expected score
0.75
50
History Matches
11
-0.14
Residual Mean
0.25
40.15
Overperformance
58.78
-0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
4.00
4.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.10
PPG
2.20
1.30
Goals for per game
3.00
4.40
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.90
4.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
11
0.72
PPG
2.27
18.0%
Win rate
72.7%
18.0%
Draw rate
9.1%
64.0%
Loss rate
18.2%
96.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
78.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
54.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
5
0.74
PPG
2.40
17.4%
Win rate
80.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.9%
Loss rate
20.0%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
73.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.85
23
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
2.91
76.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
72.0%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.43
Goals for per game
3.80
78.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
73.9%
BTTS rate
20.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
3.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
50
History Matches
11
1.44
Goals Mean
2.91
1.27
Goals Std
2.78
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
42.0%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
54.5%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
3.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.74
Goals against per game
0.82
94.0%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2.83
Goals against per game
0.80
95.7%
Conceding rate
40.0%
4.40
Goals against per game
0.83
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
11
2.74
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.69
Conceded Std
0.94
74.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.2%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
2.83
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
6.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
4.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
6.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
4.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
6.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
11
0.82
Result entropy
0.69
2.17
Goal Difference Std
3.26
17.81
Stability score
30.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
11
10
Lead Matches
5
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.53
Lead Points Retention
1.00
22
Trailing Matches
4
9.1%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
1.45
1.12
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.45
1.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
17
Long Rest History Matches
5
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
0.20
PPG
2.17
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
80.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.95
5
Current Competition Matches
6
0.20
Current Competition PPG
2.17
-2.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.64
Portability PPG Range
0.08
65.51
Portability Score
92.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-186.4
PPG-1.55
GF-1.47
GA1.92
PPG-1.97
PPG-1.66
PPG-2.20
PPG-2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate-0.39
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.56
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches39
Goals Mean-1.47
Goals Std-1.51
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.41
Venue Goals Mean-2.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.00
History Matches39
Conceded Mean1.92
Conceded Std0.76
Clean-sheet rate-0.39
Conceded 2+ rate55.8%
Conceded 3+ rate40.9%
Venue Conceded Mean2.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean3.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches39
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-1.09
Stability score-13.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.59
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.47
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate-0.41
Trailing Win Rate-0.50
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean-0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.31
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.97
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.30
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.56
Portability Score-26.80
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.48
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Current Team ELO-186.4
Current Opponent ELO186.4
Current ELO Difference-372.8
Expected score-0.49
History Matches39
Residual Mean-0.39
Overperformance-18.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.52

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gretna 2008

L
Cumnock Juniors4–1Gretna 200831 Oct · away
Pick: Cumnock Juniors 59% · hit
L
Gretna 20080–3Cumnock Juniors24 Oct · home
Pick: Gretna 2008 58% · missed
D
Gretna 20082–2Johnstone Burgh17 Oct · home
Pick: Johnstone Burgh 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Auchinleck Talbot

W
Auchinleck Talbot1–0Albion Rovers31 Oct · home
Pick: Auchinleck Talbot 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gretna 2008 and Auchinleck Talbot meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gretna 2008 win 9.2%, draw 7.3%, Auchinleck Talbot win 83.4%. The pick is Auchinleck Talbot win. Over 2.5 goals: 84.2%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.