ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Guatemala Round 19 2026

Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez

Guastatoya Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Suchitepéquez Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guastatoya win
Guastatoya winPick
71.5%
Draw
16.2%
Suchitepéquez win
12.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.1%
No53.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Guastatoya history55 matches
Suchitepéquez history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Guastatoya are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guastatoya are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,462. On rating alone Guastatoya would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.05 goals a game over 55 matches for Guastatoya, against 1.14 over 7 for Suchitepéquez.

  • Guastatoya concede fewer

    Guastatoya concede 1.27 a game, Suchitepéquez 1.71.

  • Suchitepéquez games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Guastatoya matches, against 57% for Suchitepéquez. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guastatoya
Suchitepéquez
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.8
ELO
1462.0
55
ELO · Matches
7
1499.8
Current Team ELO
1462.0
1462.0
Current Opponent ELO
1499.8
37.78
Current ELO Difference
-37.78
0.55
Expected score
0.45
55
History Matches
7
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.28
48.48
Overperformance
42.62
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
7
1.60
PPG
0.57
1.60
Goals for per game
1.14
0.90
Goals against per game
1.71
50.0%
Win rate
14.3%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.14
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.71
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.16
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.72
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
7
1.20
PPG
0.57
32.7%
Win rate
14.3%
21.8%
Draw rate
14.3%
45.5%
Loss rate
71.4%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
25.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
4
1.67
PPG
0.00
47.6%
Win rate
0.0%
23.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
21
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.05
Goals for per game
1.14
60.0%
Scoring rate
42.9%
34.5%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
0.50
71.4%
Scoring rate
25.0%
28.6%
BTTS rate
25.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
55
History Matches
7
1.05
Goals Mean
1.14
1.15
Goals Std
1.73
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
42.9%
27.3%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.71
67.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
2.50
47.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
55
History Matches
7
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.27
Conceded Std
1.16
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
71.4%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
52.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
7
0.96
Result entropy
0.72
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.44
3.87
Stability score
27.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
5
15
Lead Matches
0
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.80
Lead Points Retention
—
13
Trailing Matches
2
15.4%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.17
Rest days
76.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.20
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.72
Portability PPG Range
—
62.37
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO37.78
PPG0.63
GF-0.09
GA-0.44
PPG1.60
PPG1.67
PPG1.60
PPG1.03
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches48
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate52.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.46
History Matches48
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.58
Scored 1+ rate17.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches48
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches48
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std-0.58
Stability score-23.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches50
Lead Matches15
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate15.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches50
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.32
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO37.78
Current Opponent ELO-37.78
Current ELO Difference75.55
Expected score0.11
History Matches48
Residual Mean0.26
Overperformance5.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Guastatoya

D
Marquense0–0Guastatoya30 Oct · away
Pick: Marquense 38% · missed
D
Guastatoya1–1Antigua GFC15 Oct · home
Pick: Antigua GFC 54% · missed
W
Guastatoya2–1Aurora4 Oct · home
Pick: Guastatoya 49% · hit
L
Guastatoya1–2Marquense29 Aug · home
Pick: Guastatoya 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Suchitepéquez

W
Suchitepéquez1–0Malacateco3 Nov · home
Pick: Malacateco 37% · missed
L
Cobán Imperial2–1Suchitepéquez28 Oct · away
Pick: Cobán Imperial 69% · hit
D
Suchitepéquez2–2Aurora25 Oct · home
Pick: Aurora 37% · missed
L
Marquense2–1Suchitepéquez19 Oct · away
Pick: Marquense 66% · hit
D
Suchitepéquez1–1Deportivo San Pedro16 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo San Pedro 41% · missed

About this match

Guastatoya and Suchitepéquez meet in Liga Nacional on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Guastatoya win 71.5%, draw 16.2%, Suchitepéquez win 12.3%. The pick is Guastatoya win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 46.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.