ScoreProb
Allsvenskan Sweden Round 28 2026

Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

Hammarby FF Home · Elo 1,644
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
IF Elfsborg Away · Elo 1,567
3Arena, Stockholm Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hammarby FF win
Hammarby FF winPick
63.8%
Draw
20.4%
IF Elfsborg win
15.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Hammarby FF history78 matches
IF Elfsborg history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Hammarby FF are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hammarby FF are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,644 against 1,567. On rating alone Hammarby FF would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Hammarby FF score more

    2.06 goals a game over 78 matches for Hammarby FF, against 1.49 over 69 for IF Elfsborg.

  • Hammarby FF concede fewer

    Hammarby FF concede 1.06 a game, IF Elfsborg 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Hammarby FF matches, against 57% for IF Elfsborg. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hammarby FF
IF Elfsborg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1643.6
ELO
1567.1
78
ELO · Matches
69
1643.6
Current Team ELO
1567.1
1567.1
Current Opponent ELO
1643.6
76.55
Current ELO Difference
-76.55
0.61
Expected score
0.39
78
History Matches
69
0.09
Residual Mean
0.06
56.91
Overperformance
54.48
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
0.20
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
69
1.86
PPG
1.54
53.8%
Win rate
44.9%
24.4%
Draw rate
18.8%
21.8%
Loss rate
36.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.2%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
31
2.18
PPG
1.35
65.8%
Win rate
38.7%
21.1%
Draw rate
19.4%
13.2%
Loss rate
41.9%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
38
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.06
Goals for per game
1.49
84.6%
Scoring rate
75.4%
51.3%
BTTS rate
52.2%
2.42
Goals for per game
0.97
89.5%
Scoring rate
61.3%
42.1%
BTTS rate
35.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.39
88.9%
Scoring rate
94.4%
44.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
78
History Matches
69
2.06
Goals Mean
1.49
1.70
Goals Std
1.31
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
56.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.6%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
2.42
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.35
60.3%
Conceding rate
73.9%
0.74
Goals against per game
1.26
47.4%
Conceding rate
67.7%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.06
55.6%
Conceding rate
72.2%
78
History Matches
69
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.10
Conceded Std
1.05
29.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
69
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.83
8.12
Stability score
5.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
69
33
Lead Matches
21
78.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.87
15
Trailing Matches
20
46.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.15
Rest days
75.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
44
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
23
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
2.00
PPG
1.56
61.1%
Win rate
38.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
38.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
22.2%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
18
Current Competition Matches
18
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.56
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
9
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.54
Portability PPG Range
0.92
52.35
Portability Score
60.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO76.55
PPG0.32
GF0.57
GA-0.28
PPG0.44
PPG0.83
PPG-0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate15.8%
Scored 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score2.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.24
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate21.7%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.17
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-8.04
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO76.55
Current Opponent ELO-76.55
Current ELO Difference153.1
Expected score0.22
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hammarby FF

W
Malmo FF1–2Hammarby FF1 Nov · away
Pick: Hammarby FF 50% · hit
W
Hammarby FF2–0Sirius29 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby FF 56% · hit
W
Mjallby AIF0–2Hammarby FF25 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby FF 45% · hit
W
Halmstad0–1Hammarby FF18 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby FF 67% · hit
L
AIK Stockholm3–2Hammarby FF30 Aug · away
Pick: Hammarby FF 47% · missed

IF Elfsborg

W
IF Elfsborg2–1Orgryte IS1 Nov · home
Pick: IF Elfsborg 60% · hit
D
AIK Stockholm2–2IF Elfsborg27 Oct · away
Pick: AIK Stockholm 45% · missed
D
IF Elfsborg0–0Malmo FF23 Oct · home
Pick: IF Elfsborg 45% · missed
D
Sirius2–2IF Elfsborg18 Oct · away
Pick: Sirius 56% · missed
W
IF Elfsborg4–0Halmstad12 Oct · home
Pick: IF Elfsborg 62% · hit

About this match

Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg meet in Allsvenskan on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at 3Arena, Stockholm. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Hammarby FF win 63.8%, draw 20.4%, IF Elfsborg win 15.7%. The pick is Hammarby FF win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.