ScoreProb
Super League China Round 30 2026

Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye

Hangzhou Greentown Home · Elo 1,510
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Henan Jianye Away · Elo 1,521
Huizhou Olympic Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hangzhou Greentown win
Hangzhou Greentown winPick
41.8%
Draw
23.5%
Henan Jianye win
34.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Hangzhou Greentown history59 matches
Henan Jianye history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hangzhou Greentown are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,521. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.71 goals a game over 59 matches for Hangzhou Greentown, against 1.55 over 60 for Henan Jianye.

  • Henan Jianye concede fewer

    Hangzhou Greentown concede 1.76 a game, Henan Jianye 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Hangzhou Greentown matches, against 63% for Henan Jianye. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hangzhou Greentown
Henan Jianye
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.1
ELO
1520.9
59
ELO · Matches
60
1510.1
Current Team ELO
1520.9
1520.9
Current Opponent ELO
1510.1
-10.77
Current ELO Difference
10.77
0.48
Expected score
0.52
59
History Matches
60
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
50.09
Overperformance
50.96
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
60
1.31
PPG
1.32
32.2%
Win rate
35.0%
33.9%
Draw rate
26.7%
33.9%
Loss rate
38.3%
91.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
67.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
52.5%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
32
1.67
PPG
1.19
40.7%
Win rate
31.3%
44.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
14.8%
Loss rate
43.8%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
59.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
27
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.55
79.7%
Scoring rate
78.3%
66.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.31
85.2%
Scoring rate
71.9%
74.1%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.35
73.9%
Scoring rate
69.6%
65.2%
BTTS rate
60.9%
59
History Matches
60
1.71
Goals Mean
1.55
1.19
Goals Std
1.28
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
59.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
23.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
1.50
83.1%
Conceding rate
81.7%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.56
81.5%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.74
Goals against per game
1.43
87.0%
Conceding rate
82.6%
59
History Matches
60
1.76
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.21
Conceded Std
1.12
57.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.3%
25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.3%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.3%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.3%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
16.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
60
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.68
0.03
Stability score
1.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
60
19
Lead Matches
20
52.6%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.65
21
Trailing Matches
18
47.6%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
23.8%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.30
PPG
1.30
34.8%
Win rate
34.8%
26.1%
Draw rate
26.1%
39.1%
Loss rate
39.1%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.30
Current Competition PPG
1.30
-0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.09
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.10
Portability PPG Range
0.37
91.27
Portability Score
75.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-10.77
PPG-0.01
GF0.16
GA0.26
PPG0.00
PPG0.48
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate14.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.69
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate8.7%
Trailing Win Rate1.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.17
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score15.37
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO-10.77
Current Opponent ELO10.77
Current ELO Difference-21.53
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hangzhou Greentown

W
Shenyang Urban2–4Hangzhou Greentown24 Oct · away
Pick: Shenyang Urban 46% · missed
L
Shandong Luneng5–0Hangzhou Greentown17 Oct · away
Pick: Shandong Luneng 50% · hit
W
Hangzhou Greentown6–0Yunnan Yukun29 Aug · home
Pick: Hangzhou Greentown 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Henan Jianye

L
Henan Jianye3–4Beijing Guoan24 Oct · home
Pick: Beijing Guoan 48% · hit
L
Henan Jianye0–1Tianjin Teda16 Oct · home
Pick: Henan Jianye 44% · missed
D
Henan Jianye1–1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 Aug · home
Pick: Henan Jianye 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hangzhou Greentown win 41.8%, draw 23.5%, Henan Jianye win 34.7%. The pick is Hangzhou Greentown win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.