ScoreProb
Super League China Round 30 2026

Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda

Dalian Zhixing Home · Elo 1,517
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tianjin Teda Away · Elo 1,507
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dalian Zhixing win
Dalian Zhixing winPick
39.7%
Draw
29.1%
Tianjin Teda win
31.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.5%
No44.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%

How much we know

Dalian Zhixing history59 matches
Tianjin Teda history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Dalian Zhixing are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,517 against 1,507. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.24 goals a game over 59 matches for Dalian Zhixing, against 1.30 over 57 for Tianjin Teda.

  • Tianjin Teda concede fewer

    Dalian Zhixing concede 1.53 a game, Tianjin Teda 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Dalian Zhixing matches, against 49% for Tianjin Teda. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dalian Zhixing
Tianjin Teda
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.9
ELO
1506.9
59
ELO · Matches
57
1516.9
Current Team ELO
1506.9
1506.9
Current Opponent ELO
1516.9
9.99
Current ELO Difference
-9.99
0.51
Expected score
0.49
59
History Matches
57
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.55
Overperformance
49.87
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
57
1.32
PPG
1.33
35.6%
Win rate
35.1%
25.4%
Draw rate
28.1%
39.0%
Loss rate
36.8%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
30.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
31
1.89
PPG
1.16
59.3%
Win rate
29.0%
11.1%
Draw rate
29.0%
29.6%
Loss rate
41.9%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
27
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
1.30
76.3%
Scoring rate
75.4%
52.5%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.13
77.8%
Scoring rate
64.5%
37.0%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.39
91.7%
Scoring rate
78.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
56.5%
59
History Matches
57
1.24
Goals Mean
1.30
1.01
Goals Std
1.06
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.6%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.32
74.6%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.35
55.6%
Conceding rate
83.9%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.30
70.8%
Conceding rate
69.6%
59
History Matches
57
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.32
Conceded Std
1.08
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.9%
23.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
57
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.50
1.41
Stability score
0.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
57
21
Lead Matches
17
52.4%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.80
23
Trailing Matches
16
26.1%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.81
Rest days
77.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
36
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
23
1.50
PPG
1.22
45.8%
Win rate
30.4%
12.5%
Draw rate
30.4%
41.7%
Loss rate
39.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
24
Current Competition Matches
23
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.22
-0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.09
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.30
Portability PPG Range
0.25
76.92
Portability Score
80.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO9.99
PPG-0.01
GF-0.06
GA0.21
PPG0.28
PPG0.73
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate28.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate11.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score0.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate1.1%
Trailing Win Rate6.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.30
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-3.12
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO9.99
Current Opponent ELO-9.99
Current ELO Difference19.98
Expected score0.03
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dalian Zhixing

L
Yunnan Yukun4–3Dalian Zhixing1 Nov · away
Pick: Yunnan Yukun 51% · hit
W
Chengdu Better City0–1Dalian Zhixing24 Oct · away
Pick: Chengdu Better City 63% · missed
W
Dalian Zhixing3–1Sichuan Jiuniu17 Oct · home
Pick: Dalian Zhixing 52% · hit
W
Dalian Zhixing1–0Shanghai Shenhua1 Sep · home
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tianjin Teda

L
Tianjin Teda1–3SHANGHAI SIPG24 Oct · home
Pick: Tianjin Teda 39% · missed
W
Henan Jianye0–1Tianjin Teda16 Oct · away
Pick: Henan Jianye 44% · missed
D
Tianjin Teda1–1Qingdao Youth Island29 Aug · home
Pick: Tianjin Teda 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dalian Zhixing and Tianjin Teda meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Dalian Zhixing win 39.7%, draw 29.1%, Tianjin Teda win 31.2%. The pick is Dalian Zhixing win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.