ScoreProb
Super League China Round 30 2026

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban

SHANGHAI SIPG Home · Elo 1,549
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shenyang Urban Away · Elo 1,529
Pudong Football Stadium, Shanghai Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SHANGHAI SIPG win
SHANGHAI SIPG winPick
58.0%
Draw
18.4%
Shenyang Urban win
23.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.3%
No39.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

SHANGHAI SIPG history74 matches
Shenyang Urban history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,549 against 1,529. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.73 goals a game over 74 matches for SHANGHAI SIPG, against 1.77 over 56 for Shenyang Urban.

  • Shenyang Urban concede fewer

    SHANGHAI SIPG concede 1.64 a game, Shenyang Urban 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of SHANGHAI SIPG matches, against 59% for Shenyang Urban. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SHANGHAI SIPG
Shenyang Urban
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1549.3
ELO
1528.5
74
ELO · Matches
56
1549.3
Current Team ELO
1528.5
1528.5
Current Opponent ELO
1549.3
20.79
Current ELO Difference
-20.79
0.53
Expected score
0.47
74
History Matches
56
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.64
Overperformance
51.91
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
56
1.50
PPG
1.73
41.9%
Win rate
50.0%
24.3%
Draw rate
23.2%
33.8%
Loss rate
26.8%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
66.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.9%
47.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
27
1.41
PPG
1.41
37.8%
Win rate
37.0%
27.0%
Draw rate
29.6%
35.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
91.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
37
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.77
81.1%
Scoring rate
80.4%
70.3%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.52
81.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
67.6%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.43
87.5%
Scoring rate
65.2%
75.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
74
History Matches
56
1.73
Goals Mean
1.77
1.32
Goals Std
1.45
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
51.4%
Scored 2+ rate
51.8%
27.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.8%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.20
85.1%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.30
83.8%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.70
87.5%
Conceding rate
91.3%
74
History Matches
56
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.18
Conceded Std
1.14
48.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
20.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
16.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
16.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
14.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.93
2.15
Stability score
5.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
56
27
Lead Matches
16
70.4%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
1.00
21
Trailing Matches
17
23.8%
Non-loss rate
52.9%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.09
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.83
Rest days
76.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
51
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
23
1.42
PPG
1.09
37.5%
Win rate
30.4%
29.2%
Draw rate
17.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
52.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
24
Current Competition Matches
23
1.42
Current Competition PPG
1.09
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.26
9
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.59
2.20
Portability PPG Range
1.18
37.16
Portability Score
45.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO20.79
PPG-0.23
GF-0.04
GA0.44
PPG0.33
PPG0.00
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches18
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate0.7%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches18
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate20.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.73
History Matches18
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-3.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate3.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.51
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range1.02
Portability Score-8.72
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO20.79
Current Opponent ELO-20.79
Current ELO Difference41.57
Expected score0.06
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SHANGHAI SIPG

W
Newcastle Jets2–4SHANGHAI SIPG3 Nov · away
Pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% · hit
L
SHANGHAI SIPG2–3Công An Nhân Dân27 Oct · home
Pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 39% · missed
W
Tianjin Teda1–3SHANGHAI SIPG24 Oct · away
Pick: Tianjin Teda 39% · missed
W
SHANGHAI SIPG3–0Chengdu Better City18 Oct · home
Pick: Chengdu Better City 39% · missed
D
SHANGHAI SIPG1–1Daejeon Citizen13 Oct · home
Pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 52% · missed

Shenyang Urban

L
Shenyang Urban2–4Hangzhou Greentown24 Oct · home
Pick: Shenyang Urban 46% · missed
W
Qingdao Jonoon0–4Shenyang Urban17 Oct · away
Pick: Shenyang Urban 39% · hit
L
Chengdu Better City2–1Shenyang Urban29 Aug · away
Pick: Chengdu Better City 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenyang Urban meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Pudong Football Stadium, Shanghai. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: SHANGHAI SIPG win 58.0%, draw 18.4%, Shenyang Urban win 23.6%. The pick is SHANGHAI SIPG win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 60.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.