ScoreProb
Super League China Round 30 2026

Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island

Shanghai Shenhua Home · Elo 1,574
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Qingdao Youth Island Away · Elo 1,552
Shanghai Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shanghai Shenhua win
Shanghai Shenhua winPick
53.1%
Draw
22.5%
Qingdao Youth Island win
24.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%

How much we know

Shanghai Shenhua history75 matches
Qingdao Youth Island history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 22 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 07:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Shanghai Shenhua are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,574 against 1,552. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Shanghai Shenhua score far more

    1.92 goals a game over 75 matches for Shanghai Shenhua, against 1.21 over 62 for Qingdao Youth Island.

  • Qingdao Youth Island concede fewer

    Shanghai Shenhua concede 1.43 a game, Qingdao Youth Island 1.27.

  • Shanghai Shenhua games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Shanghai Shenhua matches, against 40% for Qingdao Youth Island. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shanghai Shenhua
Qingdao Youth Island
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1573.6
ELO
1552.3
75
ELO · Matches
62
1573.6
Current Team ELO
1552.3
1552.3
Current Opponent ELO
1573.6
21.23
Current ELO Difference
-21.23
0.53
Expected score
0.47
75
History Matches
62
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.35
Overperformance
52.74
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.10
1.90
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
62
1.75
PPG
1.39
50.7%
Win rate
32.3%
22.7%
Draw rate
41.9%
26.7%
Loss rate
25.8%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
62.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.3%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
33
1.92
PPG
1.18
55.6%
Win rate
27.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
36.4%
19.4%
Loss rate
36.4%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.8%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
52.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
36
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.21
81.3%
Scoring rate
74.2%
61.3%
BTTS rate
56.5%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.09
86.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
63.9%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.17
83.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
58.3%
75
History Matches
62
1.92
Goals Mean
1.21
1.41
Goals Std
0.94
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.2%
57.3%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
36.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.27
77.3%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.45
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.21
83.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
75
History Matches
62
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.10
Conceded Std
1.23
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
18.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
18.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
62
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.48
5.94
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
62
27
Lead Matches
15
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.73
21
Trailing Matches
16
42.9%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
19.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
23
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.58
PPG
1.50
45.8%
Win rate
33.3%
20.8%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.58
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.04
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.83
Portability PPG Range
1.00
44.40
Portability Score
53.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.23
PPG0.36
GF0.71
GA0.15
PPG0.08
PPG0.73
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate20.2%
Scored 3+ rate26.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.84
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score4.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate17.8%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate11.6%
Trailing Win Rate12.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-8.94
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO21.23
Current Opponent ELO-21.23
Current ELO Difference42.46
Expected score0.06
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shanghai Shenhua

L
Shanghai Shenhua0–1Machida Zelvia29 Oct · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 50% · hit
L
Sichuan Jiuniu2–1Shanghai Shenhua24 Oct · away
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 47% · missed
W
Wuhan Three Towns1–3Shanghai Shenhua18 Oct · away
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 43% · hit
D
Svay Rieng0–0Shanghai Shenhua15 Oct · away
Pick: Svay Rieng 43% · missed
L
Dalian Zhixing1–0Shanghai Shenhua1 Sep · away
Pick: Shanghai Shenhua 46% · missed

Qingdao Youth Island

D
Qingdao Youth Island1–1Yunnan Yukun24 Oct · home
Pick: Qingdao Youth Island 47% · missed
L
Beijing Guoan1–0Qingdao Youth Island18 Oct · away
Pick: Beijing Guoan 58% · hit
D
Tianjin Teda1–1Qingdao Youth Island29 Aug · away
Pick: Tianjin Teda 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island meet in Super League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 07:30 UTC. The match is played at Shanghai Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Shanghai Shenhua win 53.1%, draw 22.5%, Qingdao Youth Island win 24.4%. The pick is Shanghai Shenhua win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.