ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 18 2026

Hankofen-Hailing vs Erlbach

Hankofen-Hailing Home · Elo 1,450
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Erlbach Away · Elo 1,551
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hankofen-Hailing win
Hankofen-Hailing winPick
45.4%
Draw
24.8%
Erlbach win
29.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Hankofen-Hailing history61 matches
Erlbach history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hankofen-Hailing are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Erlbach are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,450. On rating alone Erlbach would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Erlbach score more

    1.13 goals a game over 61 matches for Hankofen-Hailing, against 1.27 over 52 for Erlbach.

  • Erlbach concede fewer

    Hankofen-Hailing concede 2.10 a game, Erlbach 0.98.

  • Hankofen-Hailing games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Hankofen-Hailing matches, against 42% for Erlbach. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hankofen-Hailing
Erlbach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.2
ELO
1551.2
61
ELO · Matches
52
1450.2
Current Team ELO
1551.2
1551.2
Current Opponent ELO
1450.2
-101.0
Current ELO Difference
101.0
0.36
Expected score
0.64
61
History Matches
52
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
46.74
Overperformance
53.13
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.10
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
52
0.85
PPG
1.67
19.7%
Win rate
48.1%
26.2%
Draw rate
23.1%
54.1%
Loss rate
28.8%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.5%
57.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.04
PPG
1.26
32.1%
Win rate
33.3%
7.1%
Draw rate
25.9%
60.7%
Loss rate
40.7%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.0%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.27
70.5%
Scoring rate
71.2%
52.5%
BTTS rate
34.6%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.07
82.1%
Scoring rate
63.0%
53.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.14
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
42.9%
BTTS rate
28.6%
61
History Matches
52
1.13
Goals Mean
1.27
0.98
Goals Std
1.09
70.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.10
Goals against per game
0.98
80.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2.18
Goals against per game
1.30
71.4%
Conceding rate
55.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.57
57.1%
Conceding rate
42.9%
61
History Matches
52
2.10
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.64
Conceded Std
1.20
59.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.8%
39.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
2.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
29.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
52
0.91
Result entropy
0.95
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.69
8.68
Stability score
4.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
52
13
Lead Matches
19
61.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.89
32
Trailing Matches
10
28.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
45
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
14
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.00
PPG
1.71
57.1%
Win rate
42.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
42.9%
14.3%
Loss rate
14.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
42.9%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.71
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.57
6
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.03
1.40
Portability PPG Range
0.07
43.76
Portability Score
94.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-101.0
PPG-0.82
GF-0.14
GA1.12
PPG0.29
PPG-0.22
PPG0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.18
History Matches9
Conceded Mean1.12
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Conceded 2+ rate30.2%
Conceded 3+ rate24.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.84
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score4.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches22
Non-loss rate8.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.43
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.61
Portability PPG Range1.33
Portability Score-50.65
Rest days1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-101.0
Current Opponent ELO101.0
Current ELO Difference-202.1
Expected score-0.28
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hankofen-Hailing

D
Hankofen-Hailing1–1Kirchanschöring31 Oct · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 54% · missed
W
Gundelfingen0–1Hankofen-Hailing24 Oct · away
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 46% · hit
L
Hankofen-Hailing0–21880 Wasserburg17 Oct · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 62% · missed
W
Hankofen-Hailing2–1Landshut4 Oct · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Erlbach

W
Pfaffenhofen1–5Erlbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Erlbach 34% · hit
W
Erlbach2–1Schalding-Heining23 Oct · home
Pick: Erlbach 71% · hit
W
Schwabmünchen2–3Erlbach17 Oct · away
Pick: Erlbach 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hankofen-Hailing and Erlbach meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hankofen-Hailing win 45.4%, draw 24.8%, Erlbach win 29.8%. The pick is Hankofen-Hailing win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.