ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 18 2026

Deisenhofen vs Gundelfingen

Deisenhofen Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gundelfingen Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deisenhofen win
Deisenhofen winPick
42.2%
Draw
26.5%
Gundelfingen win
31.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.7%
Under 2.546.3%

How much we know

Deisenhofen history54 matches
Gundelfingen history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Deisenhofen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,505 against 1,526. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Gundelfingen score more

    1.31 goals a game over 54 matches for Deisenhofen, against 1.48 over 40 for Gundelfingen.

  • Gundelfingen concede fewer

    Deisenhofen concede 1.46 a game, Gundelfingen 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Deisenhofen matches, against 55% for Gundelfingen. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deisenhofen
Gundelfingen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.5
ELO
1526.1
54
ELO · Matches
40
1504.5
Current Team ELO
1526.1
1526.1
Current Opponent ELO
1504.5
-21.62
Current ELO Difference
21.62
0.47
Expected score
0.53
54
History Matches
40
0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
50.44
Overperformance
52.06
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
40
1.50
PPG
1.55
40.7%
Win rate
42.5%
27.8%
Draw rate
27.5%
31.5%
Loss rate
30.0%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
20
1.89
PPG
1.30
53.6%
Win rate
30.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
40.0%
17.9%
Loss rate
30.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
28
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.48
68.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
48.1%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.15
82.1%
Scoring rate
70.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.14
57.1%
Scoring rate
57.1%
28.6%
BTTS rate
57.1%
54
History Matches
40
1.31
Goals Mean
1.48
1.21
Goals Std
1.24
68.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.5%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
22.5%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.30
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.35
67.9%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.43
Goals against per game
1.57
57.1%
Conceding rate
85.7%
54
History Matches
40
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.62
Conceded Std
1.36
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
31.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
40
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.04
1.19
Stability score
1.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
11
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.76
18
Trailing Matches
11
27.8%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
17
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.29
PPG
1.29
28.6%
Win rate
28.6%
42.9%
Draw rate
42.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
28.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.29
Current Competition PPG
1.29
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.39
65.82
Portability Score
71.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-21.62
PPG-0.05
GF-0.16
GA0.16
PPG0.00
PPG0.59
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate17.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate0.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches14
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate12.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate14.9%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate9.6%
Trailing Win Rate2.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-6.04
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO-21.62
Current Opponent ELO21.62
Current ELO Difference-43.25
Expected score-0.06
History Matches14
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deisenhofen

L
Deisenhofen0–21880 Wasserburg31 Oct · home
Pick: Deisenhofen 55% · missed
L
Sportfreunde Schwaig5–0Deisenhofen23 Oct · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 46% · hit
W
Landshut1–2Deisenhofen17 Oct · away
Pick: Landshut 50% · missed
L
Deisenhofen1–5Pipinsried29 Aug · home
Pick: Pipinsried 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gundelfingen

L
Landshut2–1Gundelfingen31 Oct · away
Pick: Landshut 50% · hit
L
Gundelfingen0–1Hankofen-Hailing24 Oct · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 46% · hit
L
Pfaffenhofen2–1Gundelfingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 46% · hit
D
Gundelfingen1–1Kottern29 Aug · home
Pick: Gundelfingen 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deisenhofen and Gundelfingen meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Deisenhofen win 42.2%, draw 26.5%, Gundelfingen win 31.3%. The pick is Deisenhofen win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.7%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.