ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 18 2026

Heimstetten vs Pipinsried

Heimstetten Home · Elo 1,496
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pipinsried Away · Elo 1,555
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pipinsried win
Heimstetten win
32.9%
Draw
19.4%
Pipinsried winPick
47.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.5%
No36.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Heimstetten history55 matches
Pipinsried history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pipinsried are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pipinsried are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,496. On rating alone Pipinsried would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.05 goals a game over 55 matches for Heimstetten, against 2.02 over 52 for Pipinsried.

  • Pipinsried concede fewer

    Heimstetten concede 1.82 a game, Pipinsried 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Heimstetten matches, against 67% for Pipinsried. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Heimstetten
Pipinsried
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.1
ELO
1554.6
55
ELO · Matches
52
1496.1
Current Team ELO
1554.6
1554.6
Current Opponent ELO
1496.1
-58.53
Current ELO Difference
58.53
0.42
Expected score
0.58
55
History Matches
52
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.84
Overperformance
53.25
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
2.10
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.89
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
52
1.44
PPG
1.71
40.0%
Win rate
51.9%
23.6%
Draw rate
15.4%
36.4%
Loss rate
32.7%
87.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
50.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
1.68
PPG
1.39
46.4%
Win rate
39.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
21.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
39.3%
89.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
53.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
2.02
85.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
72.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.43
Goals for per game
1.64
89.3%
Scoring rate
67.9%
78.6%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.29
Goals for per game
2.86
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
55
History Matches
52
2.05
Goals Mean
2.02
1.74
Goals Std
1.73
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
53.8%
32.7%
Scored 3+ rate
38.5%
2.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.82
Goals against per game
1.25
83.6%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.29
82.1%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.14
85.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
55
History Matches
52
1.82
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.59
Conceded Std
1.17
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
25.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
0.90
2.52
Goal Difference Std
2.38
2.12
Stability score
9.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
50
20
Lead Matches
18
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.4%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.96
14
Trailing Matches
16
28.6%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.86
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.90
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.14
PPG
2.29
28.6%
Win rate
71.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
14.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.14
Current Competition PPG
2.29
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.71
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.48
Portability PPG Range
0.68
46.38
Portability Score
65.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-58.53
PPG-0.28
GF0.04
GA0.57
PPG-1.14
PPG0.29
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.09
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches3
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score-7.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.86
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate9.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.14
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-18.71
Rest days-3.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Current Team ELO-58.53
Current Opponent ELO58.53
Current ELO Difference-117.1
Expected score-0.17
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Heimstetten

W
1860 München II1–4Heimstetten31 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 München II 58% · missed
D
Kottern1–1Heimstetten24 Oct · away
Pick: Heimstetten 41% · missed
D
Heimstetten1–11860 Rosenheim17 Oct · home
Pick: Heimstetten 48% · missed
D
Pfaffenhofen1–1Heimstetten25 Aug · away
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pipinsried

W
Pipinsried2–0Sportfreunde Schwaig31 Oct · home
Pick: Pipinsried 60% · hit
L
1860 München II2–0Pipinsried23 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 München II 46% · hit
D
Pipinsried2–2Kottern17 Oct · home
Pick: Pipinsried 62% · missed
W
Deisenhofen1–5Pipinsried29 Aug · away
Pick: Pipinsried 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Heimstetten and Pipinsried meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Heimstetten win 32.9%, draw 19.4%, Pipinsried win 47.7%. The pick is Pipinsried win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 63.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.