ScoreProb
Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 18 2026

TuS Geretsried vs 1860 München II

TuS Geretsried Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
1860 München II Away · Elo 1,580
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 1860 München II win
TuS Geretsried win
30.5%
Draw
22.1%
1860 München II winPick
47.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

TuS Geretsried history41 matches
1860 München II history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why 1860 München II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • 1860 München II are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,486. On rating alone 1860 München II would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • 1860 München II score more

    1.59 goals a game over 41 matches for TuS Geretsried, against 2.26 over 53 for 1860 München II.

  • 1860 München II concede fewer

    TuS Geretsried concede 1.59 a game, 1860 München II 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of TuS Geretsried matches, against 60% for 1860 München II. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
TuS Geretsried
1860 München II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.1
ELO
1580.0
41
ELO · Matches
53
1486.1
Current Team ELO
1580.0
1580.0
Current Opponent ELO
1486.1
-93.86
Current ELO Difference
93.86
0.37
Expected score
0.63
41
History Matches
53
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
49.05
Overperformance
54.93
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
2.50
2.00
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
53
1.32
PPG
1.83
36.6%
Win rate
52.8%
22.0%
Draw rate
24.5%
41.5%
Loss rate
22.6%
90.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.7%
63.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
43.4%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
28
1.48
PPG
1.36
42.9%
Win rate
35.7%
19.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
38.1%
Loss rate
35.7%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
89.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
67.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
21
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
2.26
80.5%
Scoring rate
92.5%
68.3%
BTTS rate
56.6%
1.81
Goals for per game
2.04
81.0%
Scoring rate
92.9%
61.9%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.57
Goals for per game
2.43
71.4%
Scoring rate
100.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
53
1.59
Goals Mean
2.26
1.40
Goals Std
1.54
80.5%
Scored 1+ rate
92.5%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
62.3%
14.6%
Scored 3+ rate
34.0%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.21
85.4%
Conceding rate
60.4%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.75
76.2%
Conceding rate
78.6%
2.29
Goals against per game
2.00
85.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
53
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.40
Conceded Std
1.48
34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.4%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.32
2.99
Stability score
7.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
52
14
Lead Matches
28
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.80
14
Trailing Matches
10
14.3%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
17
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.14
PPG
1.29
28.6%
Win rate
28.6%
28.6%
Draw rate
42.9%
42.9%
Loss rate
28.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.61
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.14
Current Competition PPG
1.29
-0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.43
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.24
Portability PPG Range
2.17
80.37
Portability Score
40.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-93.86
PPG-0.51
GF-0.68
GA0.38
PPG-0.14
PPG0.12
PPG1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.68
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-4.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.14
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.63
Portability PPG Range-1.92
Portability Score40.30
Rest days-0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.67
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-93.86
Current Opponent ELO93.86
Current ELO Difference-187.7
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-12
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

TuS Geretsried

L
TuS Geretsried0–2Kottern31 Oct · home
Pick: TuS Geretsried 45% · missed
L
1860 Rosenheim2–1TuS Geretsried23 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 49% · hit
L
TuS Geretsried1–2Ismaning17 Oct · home
Pick: Ismaning 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

1860 München II

L
1860 München II1–4Heimstetten31 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 München II 58% · missed
W
1860 München II2–0Pipinsried23 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 München II 46% · hit
D
Sportfreunde Schwaig3–31860 München II16 Oct · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

TuS Geretsried and 1860 München II meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: TuS Geretsried win 30.5%, draw 22.1%, 1860 München II win 47.4%. The pick is 1860 München II win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.