ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel North - 10 2026

Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

Hapoel Bnei Musmus Home · Elo 1,546
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Bnei Musmus win
Hapoel Bnei Musmus winPick
41.8%
Draw
25.7%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win
32.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

Hapoel Bnei Musmus history24 matches
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 2 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hapoel Bnei Musmus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hapoel Bnei Musmus are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,518. On rating alone Hapoel Bnei Musmus would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.54 goals a game over 24 matches for Hapoel Bnei Musmus, against 1.50 over 24 for Maccabi Neve Sha'anan.

  • Defences are close

    Hapoel Bnei Musmus concede 1.29 a game, Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Hapoel Bnei Musmus matches, against 58% for Maccabi Neve Sha'anan. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 28 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.8
ELO
1517.8
24
ELO · Matches
24
1545.8
Current Team ELO
1517.8
1517.8
Current Opponent ELO
1545.8
28.02
Current ELO Difference
-28.02
0.54
Expected score
0.46
24
History Matches
24
0.09
Residual Mean
0.04
55.15
Overperformance
51.93
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
24
1.75
PPG
1.63
50.0%
Win rate
45.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
29.2%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
12
1.58
PPG
1.75
41.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
12
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.54
Goals for per game
1.50
87.5%
Scoring rate
83.3%
62.5%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
91.7%
58.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
24
History Matches
24
1.54
Goals Mean
1.50
1.00
Goals Std
1.04
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.38
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.33
83.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
24
History Matches
24
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.17
Conceded Std
1.41
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
24
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.83
5.36
Stability score
3.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
24
10
Lead Matches
5
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.87
8
Trailing Matches
9
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
257.6
Rest days
251.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
9
Normal Rest History Matches
13
2.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
12
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.45
Portability PPG Std
—
0.90
Portability PPG Range
—
52.63
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.02
PPG0.13
GF0.04
GA-0.08
PPG-0.17
PPG1.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate4.2%
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.00
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score2.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.78
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days5.68
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO28.02
Current Opponent ELO-28.02
Current ELO Difference56.04
Expected score0.08
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

L
Hapoel Bnei Musmus1–4Hapoel Migdal HaEmek30 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Migdal HaEmek 38% · hit
L
Hapoel Bnei Musmus1–2Hapoel Ironi Arraba19 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Bnei Musmus 58% · missed
L
Hapoel Nazareth Illit4–0Hapoel Bnei Musmus12 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

L
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan1–2Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed19 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hapoel Bnei Musmus and Maccabi Neve Sha'anan meet in Liga Alef on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Hapoel Bnei Musmus win 41.8%, draw 25.7%, Maccabi Neve Sha'anan win 32.5%. The pick is Hapoel Bnei Musmus win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.