ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel North - 10 2026

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Home · Elo 1,508
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ironi Baka El Garbiya Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel winPick
36.6%
Draw
29.7%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel history24 matches
Ironi Baka El Garbiya history26 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 2 h ahead
    4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Hapoel Ironi Karmiel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,508 against 1,509. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 24 matches for Hapoel Ironi Karmiel, against 1.62 over 26 for Ironi Baka El Garbiya.

  • Hapoel Ironi Karmiel concede fewer

    Hapoel Ironi Karmiel concede 1.13 a game, Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1.35.

  • Ironi Baka El Garbiya games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Hapoel Ironi Karmiel matches, against 65% for Ironi Baka El Garbiya. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 28 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.1
ELO
1508.7
24
ELO · Matches
26
1508.1
Current Team ELO
1508.7
1508.7
Current Opponent ELO
1508.1
-0.53
Current ELO Difference
0.53
0.50
Expected score
0.50
24
History Matches
26
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.42
Overperformance
50.49
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
26
1.50
PPG
1.50
41.7%
Win rate
42.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
14
1.64
PPG
0.79
45.5%
Win rate
14.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
35.7%
27.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
11
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
1.62
79.2%
Scoring rate
76.9%
45.8%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.73
Goals for per game
0.86
90.9%
Scoring rate
64.3%
45.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
24
History Matches
26
1.50
Goals Mean
1.62
1.19
Goals Std
1.36
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.35
58.3%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.36
45.5%
Conceding rate
78.6%
24
History Matches
26
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.27
Conceded Std
1.04
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.6%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
54.5%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
26
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.63
1.92
Stability score
2.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
26
12
Lead Matches
8
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
11
0.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
252.0
Rest days
251.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
8
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.19
Portability PPG Range
0.37
84.00
Portability Score
72.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
26
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-0.53
PPG0.00
GF-0.12
GA-0.22
PPG0.85
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate33.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score11.08
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO-0.53
Current Opponent ELO0.53
Current ELO Difference-1.06
Expected score0.00
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

W
Tzeirey Tamra1–2Hapoel Ironi Karmiel2 Nov · away
Pick: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 53% · hit
D
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel3–3Hapoel Nazareth Illit23 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 42% · missed
D
Hapoel Beit Shean1–1Hapoel Ironi Karmiel19 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 34% · missed
W
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel2–0Maccabi Ironi Kfar Yona12 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 58% · hit
W
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1–0Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel8 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 52% · hit

Ironi Baka El Garbiya

W
Tzeirey Tamra1–3Ironi Baka El Garbiya19 Oct · away
Pick: Ironi Baka El Garbiya 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel and Ironi Baka El Garbiya meet in Liga Alef on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win 36.6%, draw 29.7%, Ironi Baka El Garbiya win 33.6%. The pick is Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.