ScoreProb
Liga Alef Israel South - 10 2026

Maccabi Ashdod vs Nordia Jerusalem

Maccabi Ashdod Home · Elo 1,482
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nordia Jerusalem Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maccabi Ashdod win
Maccabi Ashdod winPick
42.5%
Draw
26.0%
Nordia Jerusalem win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.2%
No40.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%

How much we know

Maccabi Ashdod history35 matches
Nordia Jerusalem history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Maccabi Ashdod are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,482 against 1,458. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.63 goals a game over 35 matches for Maccabi Ashdod, against 1.71 over 34 for Nordia Jerusalem.

  • Defences are close

    Maccabi Ashdod concede 1.51 a game, Nordia Jerusalem 1.68.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Maccabi Ashdod matches, against 65% for Nordia Jerusalem. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 28 Feb 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maccabi Ashdod
Nordia Jerusalem
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.4
ELO
1457.7
35
ELO · Matches
34
1482.4
Current Team ELO
1457.7
1457.7
Current Opponent ELO
1482.4
24.72
Current ELO Difference
-24.72
0.54
Expected score
0.46
35
History Matches
34
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.94
Overperformance
46.03
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.30
Goals against per game
2.10
10.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
34
1.14
PPG
1.32
25.7%
Win rate
38.2%
37.1%
Draw rate
17.6%
37.1%
Loss rate
44.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
1.25
PPG
1.12
25.0%
Win rate
29.4%
50.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
47.1%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.63
Goals for per game
1.71
74.3%
Scoring rate
85.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
67.6%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.82
75.0%
Scoring rate
88.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
76.5%
35
History Matches
34
1.63
Goals Mean
1.71
1.51
Goals Std
1.20
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.3%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.5%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.51
Goals against per game
1.68
77.1%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.06
75.0%
Conceding rate
88.2%
35
History Matches
34
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.68
1.32
Conceded Std
1.18
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.9%
22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
34
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.69
1.24
Stability score
5.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
34
10
Lead Matches
10
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.80
7
Trailing Matches
14
14.3%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
252.0
Rest days
252.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
13
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.98
0.58
Portability PPG Range
1.97
63.16
Portability Score
33.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO24.72
PPG-0.18
GF-0.08
GA-0.16
PPG0.13
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate11.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score-4.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.69
Portability PPG Range-1.38
Portability Score29.45
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO24.72
Current Opponent ELO-24.72
Current ELO Difference49.44
Expected score0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maccabi Ashdod

D
Maccabi Ashdod1–1Hapoel Ramat HaSharon2 Nov · home
Pick: Maccabi Ashdod 39% · missed
W
Kfar Saba 19281–3Maccabi Ashdod24 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Ashdod 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nordia Jerusalem

W
Nordia Jerusalem1–0Kfar Saba 19282 Nov · home
Pick: Nordia Jerusalem 55% · hit
L
Nordia Jerusalem1–4Hapoel Marmorek19 Oct · home
Pick: Nordia Jerusalem 51% · missed
L
Holon Yermiyahu5–0Nordia Jerusalem8 Oct · away
Pick: Holon Yermiyahu 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Maccabi Ashdod and Nordia Jerusalem meet in Liga Alef on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Maccabi Ashdod win 42.5%, draw 26.0%, Nordia Jerusalem win 31.6%. The pick is Maccabi Ashdod win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.4%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.