ScoreProb
2. Lig Türkiye 2. Lig White Group - 10 2026

Hatayspor vs Somaspor

Hatayspor Home · Elo 1,323
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Somaspor Away · Elo 1,408
Mersin Stadyumu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hatayspor win
Hatayspor winPick
44.5%
Draw
22.7%
Somaspor win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%

How much we know

Hatayspor history56 matches
Somaspor history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hatayspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Somaspor are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,408 against 1,323. On rating alone Somaspor would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.16 goals a game over 56 matches for Hatayspor, against 1.10 over 50 for Somaspor.

  • Somaspor concede fewer

    Hatayspor concede 2.63 a game, Somaspor 1.82.

  • Hatayspor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Hatayspor matches, against 60% for Somaspor. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hatayspor
Somaspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1322.6
ELO
1407.7
56
ELO · Matches
50
1322.6
Current Team ELO
1407.7
1407.7
Current Opponent ELO
1322.6
-85.10
Current ELO Difference
85.10
0.38
Expected score
0.62
56
History Matches
50
-0.16
Residual Mean
-0.09
38.35
Overperformance
43.64
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
2.50
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
50
0.54
PPG
0.86
12.5%
Win rate
22.0%
16.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
71.4%
Loss rate
58.0%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
55.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
0.74
PPG
0.76
18.5%
Win rate
16.0%
18.5%
Draw rate
28.0%
63.0%
Loss rate
56.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
51.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.16
Goals for per game
1.10
64.3%
Scoring rate
54.0%
58.9%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
40.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
32.0%
56
History Matches
50
1.16
Goals Mean
1.10
1.22
Goals Std
1.49
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
54.0%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
24.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.0%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.63
Goals against per game
1.82
94.6%
Conceding rate
76.0%
2.22
Goals against per game
1.88
92.6%
Conceding rate
72.0%
56
History Matches
50
2.63
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.43
Conceded Std
1.58
73.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
53.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.0%
2.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
5.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.0%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
5.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.0%
7.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
5.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
50
0.72
Result entropy
0.88
2.06
Goal Difference Std
2.29
27.72
Stability score
11.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
49
9
Lead Matches
8
22.2%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.75
28
Trailing Matches
18
3.6%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
1.04
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
1.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
190.9
Rest days
196.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
21
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.09
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.18
63.58
Portability Score
84.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-85.10
PPG-0.32
GF0.06
GA0.81
PPG-0.02
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.81
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate21.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score16.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.53
Lead Points Retention-0.42
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.39
Portability Score-21.03
Rest days-5.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO-85.10
Current Opponent ELO85.10
Current ELO Difference-170.2
Expected score-0.24
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hatayspor

L
Menemen FK3–0Hatayspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Menemen FK 47% · hit
L
Hatayspor0–3Erbaaspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Erbaaspor 48% · hit
L
Şanlıurfaspor4–2Hatayspor17 Oct · away
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 58% · hit
L
Hatayspor1–2Karaköprü Belediyespor7 Oct · home
Pick: Karaköprü Belediyespor 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Somaspor

L
Somaspor0–2Çorluspor 19471 Nov · home
Pick: Çorluspor 1947 59% · hit
L
Güzide Gebzespor4–1Somaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 46% · hit
L
Somaspor1–2Aliağa FAŞ18 Oct · home
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 55% · hit
W
Somaspor4–2Alanya 1221 FK7 Oct · home
Pick: Somaspor 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hatayspor and Somaspor meet in 2. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. The match is played at Mersin Stadyumu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hatayspor win 44.5%, draw 22.7%, Somaspor win 32.7%. The pick is Hatayspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.