ScoreProb
Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Linlithgow Rose

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Linlithgow Rose Away · Elo 1,585
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Linlithgow Rose win
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn win
30.1%
Draw
28.2%
Linlithgow Rose winPick
41.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

How much we know

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn history6 matches
Linlithgow Rose history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Linlithgow Rose are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Linlithgow Rose are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,508. On rating alone Linlithgow Rose would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Linlithgow Rose score far more

    1.33 goals a game over 6 matches for Hill Of Beath Hawthorn, against 2.10 over 58 for Linlithgow Rose.

  • Linlithgow Rose concede fewer

    Hill Of Beath Hawthorn concede 1.50 a game, Linlithgow Rose 1.28.

  • Linlithgow Rose games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Hill Of Beath Hawthorn matches, against 60% for Linlithgow Rose. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Linlithgow Rose
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.5
ELO
1585.0
6
ELO · Matches
58
1508.5
Current Team ELO
1585.0
1585.0
Current Opponent ELO
1508.5
-76.52
Current ELO Difference
76.52
0.39
Expected score
0.61
6
History Matches
58
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
50.85
Overperformance
55.47
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
6
Matches
10
1.67
PPG
1.10
1.33
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
58
1.67
PPG
1.84
50.0%
Win rate
56.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
13.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
28
2.00
PPG
1.96
50.0%
Win rate
64.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
3.6%
0.0%
Loss rate
32.1%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
2
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
2.10
66.7%
Scoring rate
87.9%
33.3%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.96
50.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
6
History Matches
58
1.33
Goals Mean
2.10
1.37
Goals Std
1.63
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
87.9%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
55.2%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
29.3%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.28
50.0%
Conceding rate
65.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.14
0.0%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
6
History Matches
58
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.61
Conceded Std
1.26
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.9%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
58
0.92
Result entropy
0.87
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.15
7.94
Stability score
13.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
5
Eligible Matches
57
3
Lead Matches
32
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.85
1
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
5
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
2
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.73
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
2
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
—
Portability PPG Std
0.53
—
Portability PPG Range
1.46
—
Portability Score
48.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-76.52
PPG-0.18
GF-0.77
GA0.22
PPG0.60
PPG0.04
PPG0.60
PPG0.57
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-52
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate21.3%
History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate57.1%
Failed-to-score rate35.7%
History Matches-52
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-1.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches-52
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Conceded 2+ rate12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-52
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-5.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-52
Lead Matches-29
Lead Win Rate18.8%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-52
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-35
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO-76.52
Current Opponent ELO76.52
Current ELO Difference-153.0
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-52
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-4.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

L
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn1–3Musselburgh Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 39% · missed
W
Stirling University1–2Hill Of Beath Hawthorn17 Oct · away
Pick: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 47% · hit
W
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic1–2Hill Of Beath Hawthorn29 Aug · away
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 71% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Linlithgow Rose

W
Linlithgow Rose3–0Stirling University31 Oct · home
Pick: Linlithgow Rose 73% · hit
W
Berwick Rangers0–1Linlithgow Rose17 Oct · away
Pick: Linlithgow Rose 59% · hit
W
Linlithgow Rose3–2Cowdenbeath29 Aug · home
Pick: Linlithgow Rose 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn and Linlithgow Rose meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn win 30.1%, draw 28.2%, Linlithgow Rose win 41.7%. The pick is Linlithgow Rose win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.