ScoreProb
V.League 1 Vietnam Round 7 2027

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Nam Dinh

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh Home · Elo 1,481
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nam Dinh Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nam Dinh win
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win
23.8%
Draw
30.0%
Nam Dinh winPick
46.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.2%
Under 2.557.8%

How much we know

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh history43 matches
Nam Dinh history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nam Dinh are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nam Dinh are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,481. On rating alone Nam Dinh would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Nam Dinh score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 43 matches for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh, against 1.69 over 58 for Nam Dinh.

  • Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh concede fewer

    Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh concede 1.02 a game, Nam Dinh 1.16.

  • Nam Dinh games more often go over 2.5 goals

    23% of Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh matches, against 53% for Nam Dinh. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Nam Dinh
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1480.7
ELO
1558.2
43
ELO · Matches
58
1480.7
Current Team ELO
1558.2
1558.2
Current Opponent ELO
1480.7
-77.52
Current ELO Difference
77.52
0.39
Expected score
0.61
43
History Matches
58
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.05
48.33
Overperformance
54.09
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
58
1.19
PPG
1.71
27.9%
Win rate
50.0%
34.9%
Draw rate
20.7%
37.2%
Loss rate
29.3%
51.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
23.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.4%
11.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
27
1.29
PPG
1.48
28.6%
Win rate
40.7%
42.9%
Draw rate
25.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
47.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
23.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
21
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.67
Goals for per game
1.69
51.2%
Scoring rate
81.0%
27.9%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.81
Goals for per game
1.41
57.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
38.1%
BTTS rate
51.9%
43
History Matches
58
0.67
Goals Mean
1.69
0.77
Goals Std
1.52
51.2%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
14.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
2.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.7%
0.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.16
60.5%
Conceding rate
70.7%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.22
61.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
43
History Matches
58
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.00
Conceded Std
1.01
32.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.31
Goal Difference Std
2.05
0.66
Stability score
6.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
58
9
Lead Matches
23
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
18
28.6%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.30
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
152.0
Rest days
148.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
22
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.15
Portability PPG Range
1.23
86.86
Portability Score
53.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-77.52
PPG-0.52
GF-1.02
GA-0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate29.9%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate20.6%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-1.02
Goals Std-0.75
Scored 1+ rate-0.30
Scored 2+ rate-0.36
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches-15
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.74
Stability score-5.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score33.03
Rest days4.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Current Team ELO-77.52
Current Opponent ELO77.52
Current ELO Difference-155.0
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

D
Thanh Hóa1–1Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh30 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
W
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh2–1Hai Phong24 Oct · home
Pick: Hai Phong 34% · missed
D
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh2–2Song Lam Nghe An17 Oct · home
Pick: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 36% · missed
W
Viettel1–3Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh8 Oct · away
Pick: Viettel 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nam Dinh

W
Nam Dinh3–1Viettel31 Oct · home
Pick: Nam Dinh 55% · hit
W
Bình Phước0–4Nam Dinh24 Oct · away
Pick: Nam Dinh 40% · hit
W
Thanh Hóa0–2Nam Dinh17 Oct · away
Pick: Nam Dinh 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh and Nam Dinh meet in V.League 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win 23.8%, draw 30.0%, Nam Dinh win 46.2%. The pick is Nam Dinh win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.2%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.