ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 16 2026

Horsham vs AFC Totton

Horsham Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AFC Totton Away · Elo 1,537
The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium, Horsham Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Horsham win
Horsham winPick
48.8%
Draw
25.7%
AFC Totton win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Horsham history79 matches
AFC Totton history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Horsham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,531 against 1,537. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.53 goals a game over 79 matches for Horsham, against 1.46 over 78 for AFC Totton.

  • Horsham concede fewer

    Horsham concede 1.05 a game, AFC Totton 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Horsham matches, against 53% for AFC Totton. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Horsham
AFC Totton
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.5
ELO
1536.5
79
ELO · Matches
78
1530.5
Current Team ELO
1536.5
1536.5
Current Opponent ELO
1530.5
-5.99
Current ELO Difference
5.99
0.49
Expected score
0.51
79
History Matches
78
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.63
Overperformance
51.91
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
78
1.67
PPG
1.63
48.1%
Win rate
47.4%
22.8%
Draw rate
20.5%
29.1%
Loss rate
32.1%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
49.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
16.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
38
1.78
PPG
1.13
51.2%
Win rate
31.6%
24.4%
Draw rate
18.4%
24.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
41
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.46
78.5%
Scoring rate
78.2%
50.6%
BTTS rate
55.1%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.18
85.4%
Scoring rate
68.4%
48.8%
BTTS rate
52.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
79
History Matches
78
1.53
Goals Mean
1.46
1.28
Goals Std
1.17
78.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
1.44
65.8%
Conceding rate
74.4%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.71
56.1%
Conceding rate
78.9%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
79
History Matches
78
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.95
Conceded Std
1.38
31.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
43.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
78
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.96
4.58
Stability score
5.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
78
34
Lead Matches
26
73.5%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.88
17
Trailing Matches
24
41.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
70
Normal Rest History Matches
64
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
5
Long Rest History Matches
8
2.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
4
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.18
Portability PPG Range
0.57
50.73
Portability Score
68.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-5.99
PPG0.04
GF0.07
GA-0.39
PPG0.00
PPG0.65
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate2.0%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.43
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-0.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate16.2%
Trailing Win Rate5.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.08
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-17.30
Rest days-3.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.98
Current Team ELO-5.99
Current Opponent ELO5.99
Current ELO Difference-11.99
Expected score-0.02
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Horsham

W
Farnborough0–5Horsham31 Oct · away
Pick: Horsham 44% · hit
D
Maidenhead1–1Horsham27 Oct · away
Pick: Maidenhead 36% · missed
W
Horsham1–0Walton & Hersham24 Oct · home
Pick: Horsham 55% · hit
D
Ebbsfleet United2–2Horsham20 Oct · away
Pick: Horsham 41% · missed
W
Slough Town1–2Horsham17 Oct · away
Pick: Horsham 52% · hit

AFC Totton

L
AFC Totton1–3Chelmsford City31 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit
W
AFC Totton1–0Torquay27 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Totton 38% · hit
W
Hemel Hempstead Town1–3AFC Totton24 Oct · away
Pick: Hemel Hempstead Town 48% · missed
L
Folkestone Invicta2–1AFC Totton17 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit
L
Ebbsfleet United5–0AFC Totton13 Oct · away
Pick: Ebbsfleet United 46% · hit

About this match

Horsham and AFC Totton meet in National League - South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium, Horsham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Horsham win 48.8%, draw 25.7%, AFC Totton win 25.5%. The pick is Horsham win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.