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Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 16 2026

HT16 vs Norderstedt II

HT16 Home · Elo 1,538
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Norderstedt II Away · Elo 1,463
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: HT16 win
HT16 winPick
77.1%
Draw
11.5%
Norderstedt II win
11.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.5%
No33.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.586.9%
Under 2.513.1%

How much we know

HT16 history38 matches
Norderstedt II history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.1%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why HT16 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • HT16 are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,463. On rating alone HT16 would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • HT16 score far more

    2.47 goals a game over 38 matches for HT16, against 1.25 over 4 for Norderstedt II.

  • HT16 concede fewer

    HT16 concede 2.50 a game, Norderstedt II 3.75.

  • Norderstedt II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    82% of HT16 matches, against 100% for Norderstedt II. The model puts this match at 87% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
HT16
Norderstedt II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.0
ELO
1463.1
38
ELO · Matches
4
1538.0
Current Team ELO
1463.1
1463.1
Current Opponent ELO
1538.0
74.93
Current ELO Difference
-74.93
0.61
Expected score
0.39
38
History Matches
4
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.46
53.25
Overperformance
42.34
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.46
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
0.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.25
2.40
Goals against per game
3.75
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
4
1.90
PPG
0.00
3.50
Goals for per game
1.25
2.70
Goals against per game
3.75
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
3.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.25
1.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.75
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
4
1.61
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
39.5%
Loss rate
100.0%
92.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
81.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
68.4%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
2
1.32
PPG
0.00
42.1%
Win rate
0.0%
5.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
52.6%
Loss rate
100.0%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
84.2%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
73.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
19
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.47
Goals for per game
1.25
92.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
73.7%
BTTS rate
75.0%
2.26
Goals for per game
1.50
84.2%
Scoring rate
100.0%
78.9%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
38
History Matches
4
2.47
Goals Mean
1.25
1.79
Goals Std
0.83
92.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
60.5%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
39.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.50
Goals against per game
3.75
81.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
94.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
4
2.50
Conceded Mean
3.75
1.90
Conceded Std
1.30
65.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
52.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
7.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
7.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
4
0.87
Result entropy
0.00
2.77
Goal Difference Std
1.12
13.48
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
4
15
Lead Matches
1
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.00
13
Trailing Matches
3
23.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
1.11
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.05
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
1.37
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
16
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.06
Portability PPG Std
—
0.12
Portability PPG Range
—
89.47
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO74.93
PPG1.61
GF1.22
GA-1.25
PPG1.50
PPG1.32
PPG1.80
PPG1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches34
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches34
Goals Mean1.22
Goals Std0.96
Scored 1+ rate17.1%
Scored 2+ rate10.5%
Scored 3+ rate39.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.25
Recent 10 Goals Std1.08
History Matches34
Conceded Mean-1.25
Conceded Std0.60
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.34
Conceded 3+ rate-0.47
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches34
Result entropy0.87
Goal Difference Std1.65
Stability score-86.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.11
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate73.3%
Lead Points Retention0.78
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate23.1%
Trailing Win Rate23.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.80
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.69
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.65
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match1.75
Current Team ELO74.93
Current Opponent ELO-74.93
Current ELO Difference149.9
Expected score0.21
History Matches34
Residual Mean0.51
Overperformance10.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.60

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

HT16

W
Harksheide0–3HT166 Nov · away
Pick: HT16 50% · hit
L
HT161–2Altona 9331 Oct · home
Pick: HT16 52% · missed
W
Buchholz3–4HT1625 Oct · away
Pick: Buchholz 46% · missed
D
HT162–2ETSV Hamburg17 Oct · home
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Norderstedt II

L
Norderstedt II1–4Niendorfer TSV6 Nov · home
Pick: Niendorfer TSV 76% · hit
L
Paloma5–2Norderstedt II1 Nov · away
Pick: Paloma 87% · hit
W
Norderstedt II2–1Nikola Tesla23 Oct · home
Pick: Nikola Tesla 50% · missed
L
Norderstedt II1–2HEBC16 Oct · home
Pick: HEBC 68% · hit
W
Norderstedt II2–1ETSV Hamburg13 Oct · home
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 82% · missed

About this match

HT16 and Norderstedt II meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: HT16 win 77.1%, draw 11.5%, Norderstedt II win 11.5%. The pick is HT16 win. Over 2.5 goals: 86.9%. Both teams to score: 66.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.