ScoreProb
Log in
Oberliga - Hamburg Germany Hamburg - 16 2026

Tus Dassendorf vs Teutonia Ottensen

Tus Dassendorf Home · Elo 1,641
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Teutonia Ottensen Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tus Dassendorf win
Tus Dassendorf winPick
77.1%
Draw
13.8%
Teutonia Ottensen win
9.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.2%
Under 2.520.8%

How much we know

Tus Dassendorf history52 matches
Teutonia Ottensen history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (77.1%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Tus Dassendorf are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tus Dassendorf are rated 170 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,641 against 1,471. On rating alone Tus Dassendorf would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Tus Dassendorf score far more

    2.92 goals a game over 52 matches for Tus Dassendorf, against 1.46 over 52 for Teutonia Ottensen.

  • Tus Dassendorf concede fewer

    Tus Dassendorf concede 1.08 a game, Teutonia Ottensen 2.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    73% of Tus Dassendorf matches, against 65% for Teutonia Ottensen. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tus Dassendorf
Teutonia Ottensen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1640.8
ELO
1470.6
52
ELO · Matches
52
1640.8
Current Team ELO
1470.6
1470.6
Current Opponent ELO
1640.8
170.3
Current ELO Difference
-170.3
0.73
Expected score
0.27
52
History Matches
52
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.03
59.24
Overperformance
47.80
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
3.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.20
2.70
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
2.10
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
52
2.25
PPG
1.27
71.2%
Win rate
40.4%
11.5%
Draw rate
5.8%
17.3%
Loss rate
53.8%
92.3%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
73.1%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
55.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
2.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
2.48
PPG
1.07
80.0%
Win rate
33.3%
8.0%
Draw rate
7.4%
12.0%
Loss rate
59.3%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.92
Goals for per game
1.46
90.4%
Scoring rate
67.3%
55.8%
BTTS rate
55.8%
2.92
Goals for per game
1.44
96.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
52.0%
BTTS rate
59.3%
3.50
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
52
2.92
Goals Mean
1.46
2.05
Goals Std
1.47
90.4%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
76.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.4%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.2%
2.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
2.13
63.5%
Conceding rate
86.5%
0.72
Goals against per game
2.19
56.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.67
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
52
1.08
Conceded Mean
2.13
1.30
Conceded Std
1.48
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
67.3%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
4.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
9.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
4.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
52
0.72
Result entropy
0.79
2.66
Goal Difference Std
2.28
27.64
Stability score
21.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
50
35
Lead Matches
17
91.4%
Lead Win Rate
94.1%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.96
9
Trailing Matches
21
22.2%
Non-loss rate
4.8%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
1.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
1.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.77
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
23
Normal Rest History Matches
28
2.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
2.50
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.87
4
Current Competition Matches
3
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.08
Portability PPG Std
0.25
2.64
Portability PPG Range
0.60
31.70
Portability Score
66.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO170.3
PPG0.98
GF1.46
GA-1.06
PPG1.50
PPG1.41
PPG0.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate32.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches0
Goals Mean1.46
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate23.1%
Scored 2+ rate36.5%
Scored 3+ rate30.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-1.06
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.42
Conceded 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Conceded Mean-1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.22
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score6.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate17.5%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.82
Portability PPG Range2.05
Portability Score-34.77
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.86
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.20
Current Team ELO170.3
Current Opponent ELO-170.3
Current ELO Difference340.5
Expected score0.45
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance11.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tus Dassendorf

W
Sasel1–3Tus Dassendorf1 Nov · away
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 68% · hit
L
Tus Dassendorf1–2Süderelbe24 Oct · home
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 70% · missed
W
Tus Dassendorf3–1Eintracht Norderstedt29 Aug · home
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Teutonia Ottensen

D
Teutonia Ottensen1–1Sasel7 Nov · home
Pick: Sasel 51% · missed
W
Süderelbe3–4Teutonia Ottensen30 Oct · away
Pick: Süderelbe 57% · missed
L
Teutonia Ottensen1–3Pinneberg23 Oct · home
Pick: Pinneberg 46% · hit
D
Victoria Hamburg2–2Teutonia Ottensen16 Oct · away
Pick: Victoria Hamburg 60% · missed
D
Teutonia Ottensen0–0Harksheide30 Aug · home
Pick: Teutonia Ottensen 48% · missed

About this match

Tus Dassendorf and Teutonia Ottensen meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Tus Dassendorf win 77.1%, draw 13.8%, Teutonia Ottensen win 9.0%. The pick is Tus Dassendorf win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.2%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.