ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Spain Group 9 - 10 2026

Motril vs Almería II

Motril Home · Elo 1,578
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Almería II Away · Elo 1,398
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Motril win
Motril winPick
60.7%
Draw
24.2%
Almería II win
15.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%

How much we know

Motril history55 matches
Almería II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Motril are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Motril are rated 180 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,578 against 1,398. On rating alone Motril would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Motril score far more

    1.64 goals a game over 55 matches for Motril, against 0.84 over 49 for Almería II.

  • Motril concede fewer

    Motril concede 0.85 a game, Almería II 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Motril matches, against 41% for Almería II. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Motril
Almería II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.8
ELO
1397.8
55
ELO · Matches
49
1577.8
Current Team ELO
1397.8
1397.8
Current Opponent ELO
1577.8
180.0
Current ELO Difference
-180.0
0.74
Expected score
0.26
55
History Matches
49
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.10
55.09
Overperformance
42.62
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.30
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
49
1.84
PPG
0.86
50.9%
Win rate
20.4%
30.9%
Draw rate
24.5%
18.2%
Loss rate
55.1%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.3%
47.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.8%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
25
2.04
PPG
0.60
57.1%
Win rate
12.0%
32.1%
Draw rate
24.0%
10.7%
Loss rate
64.0%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
28
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.64
Goals for per game
0.84
78.2%
Scoring rate
57.1%
45.5%
BTTS rate
49.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
82.1%
Scoring rate
44.0%
46.4%
BTTS rate
40.0%
55
History Matches
49
1.64
Goals Mean
0.84
1.27
Goals Std
0.93
78.2%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
18.4%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.85
Goals against per game
1.43
56.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.56
53.6%
Conceding rate
88.0%
55
History Matches
49
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.43
0.98
Conceded Std
1.03
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
49
0.93
Result entropy
0.91
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.34
7.47
Stability score
9.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
49
20
Lead Matches
10
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.60
9
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
154.0
Rest days
189.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.72
21
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.78
69.89
Portability Score
56.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO180.0
PPG0.98
GF0.80
GA-0.57
PPG1.44
PPG0.80
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate29.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate34.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.80
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate21.0%
Scored 2+ rate30.7%
Scored 3+ rate21.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.21
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.57
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate29.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-1.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate30.0%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate27.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score13.79
Rest days-35.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.99
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.77
Current Team ELO180.0
Current Opponent ELO-180.0
Current ELO Difference360.0
Expected score0.48
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance12.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Motril

L
Motril2–4Málaga II25 Oct · home
Pick: Motril 61% · missed
W
UD San Pedro2–3Motril4 Oct · away
Pick: Motril 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Almería II

D
Almería II2–2Atletico de Marbella25 Oct · home
Pick: Almería II 64% · missed
D
Cantoria1–1Almería II4 Oct · away
Pick: Almería II 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Motril and Almería II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Motril win 60.7%, draw 24.2%, Almería II win 15.2%. The pick is Motril win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.7%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.