ScoreProb
Superettan Sweden Round 30 2026

IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping

IFK Varnamo Home · Elo 1,414
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
IFK Norrkoping Away · Elo 1,613
Finnvedsvallen, Varnamo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: IFK Norrkoping win
IFK Varnamo win
17.1%
Draw
16.7%
IFK Norrkoping winPick
66.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.3%
Under 2.537.7%

How much we know

IFK Varnamo history70 matches
IFK Norrkoping history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why IFK Norrkoping are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • IFK Norrkoping are rated 199 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,414. On rating alone IFK Norrkoping would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • IFK Norrkoping score more

    1.27 goals a game over 70 matches for IFK Varnamo, against 1.71 over 73 for IFK Norrkoping.

  • IFK Norrkoping concede fewer

    IFK Varnamo concede 2.00 a game, IFK Norrkoping 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of IFK Varnamo matches, against 58% for IFK Norrkoping. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
IFK Varnamo
IFK Norrkoping
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1414.3
ELO
1613.2
70
ELO · Matches
73
1414.3
Current Team ELO
1613.2
1613.2
Current Opponent ELO
1414.3
-198.9
Current ELO Difference
198.9
0.24
Expected score
0.76
70
History Matches
73
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.08
45.69
Overperformance
56.23
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
3.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.70
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
30.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
73
0.81
PPG
1.62
18.6%
Win rate
47.9%
25.7%
Draw rate
17.8%
55.7%
Loss rate
34.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
31.5%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
36
0.83
PPG
1.44
16.7%
Win rate
41.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
50.0%
Loss rate
38.9%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
36
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.71
71.4%
Scoring rate
79.5%
65.7%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.53
75.0%
Scoring rate
80.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
63.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
65.0%
Scoring rate
85.0%
55.0%
BTTS rate
35.0%
70
History Matches
73
1.27
Goals Mean
1.71
1.07
Goals Std
1.34
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
79.5%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.7%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.37
88.6%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.83
Goals against per game
1.50
86.1%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.90
Goals against per game
0.60
85.0%
Conceding rate
45.0%
70
History Matches
73
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.40
Conceded Std
1.30
58.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
31.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.2%
1.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
13.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
73
0.90
Result entropy
0.93
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.93
10.09
Stability score
6.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
73
15
Lead Matches
38
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.2%
0.53
Lead Points Retention
0.86
29
Trailing Matches
16
17.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
74.87
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
41
Normal Rest History Matches
43
0.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.40
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
0.95
PPG
2.20
25.0%
Win rate
70.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
55.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
20
Current Competition Matches
20
0.95
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-0.70
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.30
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.31
49.83
Portability Score
51.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-198.9
PPG-0.80
GF-0.44
GA0.63
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.61
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.63
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate21.6%
Conceded 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score3.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-23
Lead Win Rate-0.44
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate3.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-1.92
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-198.9
Current Opponent ELO198.9
Current ELO Difference-397.8
Expected score-0.52
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-10.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

IFK Varnamo

W
Norrby IF0–3IFK Varnamo31 Oct · away
Pick: Norrby IF 54% · missed
L
IFK Varnamo0–1Sandviken24 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Varnamo 39% · missed
W
GIF Sundsvall0–1IFK Varnamo18 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Varnamo 48% · hit
W
Ljungskile SK0–1IFK Varnamo29 Aug · away
Pick: Ljungskile SK 62% · missed
D
IFK Varnamo1–1Landskrona BoIS24 Aug · home
Pick: Landskrona BoIS 41% · missed

IFK Norrkoping

W
IFK Norrkoping3–0Ostersunds FK31 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 57% · hit
W
Norrby IF0–4IFK Norrkoping25 Oct · away
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 51% · hit
D
IFK Norrkoping2–2Orebro SK20 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 66% · missed
W
IFK Norrkoping4–0GIF Sundsvall13 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 80% · hit
D
IFK Norrkoping0–0Kalmar FF6 Oct · home
Pick: IFK Norrkoping 55% · missed

About this match

IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping meet in Superettan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Finnvedsvallen, Varnamo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: IFK Varnamo win 17.1%, draw 16.7%, IFK Norrkoping win 66.2%. The pick is IFK Norrkoping win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.3%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.