Independente Simão Dias vs Barra SE
What we said before kickoff Result: Draw
Independente Simão Dias winPick
41.6%
Draw Result
23.9%
Barra SE win
34.5%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickIndependente Simão Dias win · 41.6%
What happenedDraw · we gave it 23.9%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 54.6%
What happenedUnder · No goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.7%
What happenedNo · 0–0
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Draw. In our numbers it ranked third of the three.
24%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 4.2
on average A pick at 42% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes51.7%
No48.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%
How much we know
Independente Simão Dias history8 matches
Barra SE history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–0None of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Independente Simão Dias are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,462 against 1,481. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Barra SE score far more
0.75 goals a game over 8 matches for Independente Simão Dias, against 1.17 over 6 for Barra SE.
-
Independente Simão Dias concede fewer
Independente Simão Dias concede 2.00 a game, Barra SE 2.83.
-
Barra SE games more often go over 2.5 goals
38% of Independente Simão Dias matches, against 50% for Barra SE. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 1 Nov 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barra SE@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1462.1
ELO
1481.0
8
ELO · Matches
6
1462.1
Current Team ELO
1481.0
1481.0
Current Opponent ELO
1462.1
-18.87
Current ELO Difference
18.87
0.47
Expected score
0.53
8
History Matches
6
-0.21
Residual Mean
-0.16
43.92
Overperformance
46.36
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
8
Matches
6
0.63
PPG
1.00
0.75
Goals for per game
1.17
2.00
Goals against per game
2.83
12.5%
Win rate
33.3%
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.07
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.83
0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.61
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals 90
8
Matches
6
0.63
PPG
1.00
12.5%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
62.5%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
5
Matches
3
0.80
PPG
0.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
5
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.75
Goals for per game
1.17
37.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
37.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
40.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
8
History Matches
6
0.75
Goals Mean
1.17
1.30
Goals Std
1.07
37.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
12.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
2.83
100.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
4.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
8
History Matches
6
2.00
Conceded Mean
2.83
0.71
Conceded Std
2.61
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
4.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
8
History Matches
6
0.82
Result entropy
0.58
1.64
Goal Difference Std
2.69
18.06
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
3
Eligible Matches
6
0
Lead Matches
2
—
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.50
3
Trailing Matches
2
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.17
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
368.0
Rest days
613.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
5
Normal Rest History Matches
3
0.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
8
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-18.87
PPG-0.38
GF-0.42
GA-0.83
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.38
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate29.2%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate26.7%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.83
Conceded Std-1.90
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.90
History Matches2
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std-1.05
Stability score-24.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.05
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-2
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.83
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-245.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-18.87
Current Opponent ELO18.87
Current ELO Difference-37.73
Expected score-0.05
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-2.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Independente Simão Dias
L
Socorro Sport5–0Independente Simão Dias1 Nov · away
Pick: Socorro Sport 40% · hit D
Independente Simão Dias1–1Estanciano29 Oct · home
Pick: Independente Simão Dias 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Barra SE
L
Frei Paulistano5–0Barra SE1 Nov · away
Pick: Frei Paulistano 70% · hit D
Barra SE0–0Socorro Sport29 Oct · home
Pick: Barra SE 55% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Independente Simão Dias and Barra SE finished 0–0 in Sergipano - 2 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Independente Simão Dias win 41.6%, draw 23.9%, Barra SE win 34.5%. None of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.