ScoreProb
Primera División Bolivia Round 25 2026

Independiente Petrolero vs Real Tomayapo

Independiente Petrolero Home · Elo 1,446
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Tomayapo Away · Elo 1,406
Estadio Olimpico Patria, Sucre Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Independiente Petrolero win
Independiente Petrolero winPick
63.3%
Draw
17.1%
Real Tomayapo win
19.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%

How much we know

Independiente Petrolero history63 matches
Real Tomayapo history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Independiente Petrolero are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Independiente Petrolero are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,446 against 1,406. On rating alone Independiente Petrolero would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Independiente Petrolero score more

    1.52 goals a game over 63 matches for Independiente Petrolero, against 1.24 over 54 for Real Tomayapo.

  • Defences are close

    Independiente Petrolero concede 2.14 a game, Real Tomayapo 2.33.

  • Independiente Petrolero games more often go over 2.5 goals

    78% of Independiente Petrolero matches, against 61% for Real Tomayapo. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Independiente Petrolero
Real Tomayapo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.0
ELO
1406.3
63
ELO · Matches
54
1446.0
Current Team ELO
1406.3
1406.3
Current Opponent ELO
1446.0
39.73
Current ELO Difference
-39.73
0.56
Expected score
0.44
63
History Matches
54
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.08
46.56
Overperformance
44.10
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
54
1.10
PPG
0.91
31.7%
Win rate
22.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
24.1%
54.0%
Loss rate
53.7%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.6%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.17
PPG
0.31
33.3%
Win rate
7.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
7.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
84.6%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
1.24
74.6%
Scoring rate
68.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.57
Goals for per game
0.73
73.3%
Scoring rate
46.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.73
81.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
68.8%
BTTS rate
46.7%
63
History Matches
54
1.52
Goals Mean
1.24
1.49
Goals Std
1.23
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.5%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
20.6%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.14
Goals against per game
2.33
90.5%
Conceding rate
87.0%
2.03
Goals against per game
3.00
90.0%
Conceding rate
88.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.93
81.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
63
History Matches
54
2.14
Conceded Mean
2.33
1.26
Conceded Std
1.91
69.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.6%
36.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.2%
2.03
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
54
0.89
Result entropy
0.92
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.23
11.24
Stability score
7.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
54
12
Lead Matches
15
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
40.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.51
29
Trailing Matches
23
24.1%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
17.2%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.98
Rest days
74.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.86
30
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
24
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
15
1.38
PPG
0.87
37.5%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.7%
37.5%
Loss rate
53.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
81.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
16
Current Competition Matches
15
1.38
Current Competition PPG
0.87
-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
9
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.02
1.38
Portability PPG Range
0.05
50.26
Portability Score
95.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO39.73
PPG0.19
GF0.28
GA-0.19
PPG0.51
PPG0.86
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate3.2%
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.65
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score3.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate51.7%
Lead Points Retention0.43
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate8.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.51
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.08
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.33
Portability Score-45.24
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.39
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO39.73
Current Opponent ELO-39.73
Current ELO Difference79.45
Expected score0.11
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Independiente Petrolero

D
Real Potosí1–1Independiente Petrolero30 Oct · away
Pick: Real Potosí 62% · missed
W
Independiente Petrolero4–2ABB24 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente Petrolero 64% · hit
W
Independiente Petrolero4–0Aurora20 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente Petrolero 55% · hit
D
Blooming0–0Independiente Petrolero17 Oct · away
Pick: Blooming 54% · missed
L
Always Ready2–0Independiente Petrolero12 Oct · away
Pick: Always Ready 75% · hit

Real Tomayapo

L
Aurora1–0Real Tomayapo25 Oct · away
Pick: Aurora 61% · hit
W
Real Tomayapo1–0Gualberto Villarroel SJ17 Oct · home
Pick: Gualberto Villarroel SJ 41% · missed
L
Real Oruro4–0Real Tomayapo6 Oct · away
Pick: Real Oruro 62% · hit
W
Real Tomayapo3–0Independiente Petrolero1 Sep · home
Pick: Independiente Petrolero 40% · missed
W
Real Potosí0–1Real Tomayapo26 Aug · away
Pick: Real Potosí 74% · missed

About this match

Independiente Petrolero and Real Tomayapo meet in Primera División on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Olimpico Patria, Sucre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Independiente Petrolero win 63.3%, draw 17.1%, Real Tomayapo win 19.5%. The pick is Independiente Petrolero win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.