ScoreProb
Second League Egypt Round 12 2026

Ismaily SC vs El Mansura

Ismaily SC Home · Elo 1,365
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
El Mansura Away · Elo 1,502
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ismaily SC win
Ismaily SC winPick
36.5%
Draw
31.5%
El Mansura win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.2%
No58.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.7%
Under 2.565.3%

How much we know

Ismaily SC history64 matches
El Mansura history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.

Why Ismaily SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • El Mansura are rated 136 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,365. On rating alone El Mansura would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • El Mansura score more

    0.56 goals a game over 64 matches for Ismaily SC, against 0.81 over 53 for El Mansura.

  • El Mansura concede fewer

    Ismaily SC concede 1.25 a game, El Mansura 0.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    31% of Ismaily SC matches, against 25% for El Mansura. The model puts this match at 35% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ismaily SC
El Mansura@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1365.4
ELO
1501.7
64
ELO · Matches
53
1365.4
Current Team ELO
1501.7
1501.7
Current Opponent ELO
1365.4
-136.3
Current ELO Difference
136.3
0.31
Expected score
0.69
64
History Matches
53
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.00
42.19
Overperformance
50.03
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.10
0.40
Goals for per game
0.70
1.30
Goals against per game
0.70
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
53
0.67
PPG
1.26
12.5%
Win rate
28.3%
29.7%
Draw rate
41.5%
57.8%
Loss rate
30.2%
57.8%
Over 1.5 rate
50.9%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
24.5%
10.9%
Over 3.5 rate
7.5%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
0.61
PPG
1.33
12.9%
Win rate
33.3%
22.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
64.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
3.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.56
Goals for per game
0.81
40.6%
Scoring rate
54.7%
32.8%
BTTS rate
34.0%
0.71
Goals for per game
0.93
48.4%
Scoring rate
55.6%
41.9%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
64
History Matches
53
0.56
Goals Mean
0.81
0.81
Goals Std
0.89
40.6%
Scored 1+ rate
54.7%
10.9%
Scored 2+ rate
20.8%
4.7%
Scored 3+ rate
5.7%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
0.81
73.4%
Conceding rate
56.6%
1.52
Goals against per game
0.89
74.2%
Conceding rate
55.6%
3.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
64
History Matches
53
1.25
Conceded Mean
0.81
0.97
Conceded Std
0.89
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.0%
7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.5%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
0.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
59.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
51.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
59.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.3%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
51.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
53
0.85
Result entropy
0.99
1.26
Goal Difference Std
1.26
14.69
Stability score
1.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
52
9
Lead Matches
11
44.4%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.48
Lead Points Retention
0.73
23
Trailing Matches
12
13.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.22
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.96
Rest days
183.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
45
Normal Rest History Matches
33
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
0.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
100.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
0.00
Current Competition PPG
—
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
6
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.12
82.83
Portability Score
89.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-136.3
PPG-0.59
GF-0.25
GA0.44
PPG-0.72
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate25.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score13.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-6.24
Rest days-99.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-136.3
Current Opponent ELO136.3
Current ELO Difference-272.7
Expected score-0.37
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ismaily SC

L
Ismaily SC0–1La Viena FC23 Oct · home
Pick: La Viena FC 41% · hit
D
El Seka El Hadid0–0Ismaily SC16 Oct · away
Pick: El Seka El Hadid 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

El Mansura

W
El Mansura2–1Haras El Hodood29 Oct · home
Pick: El Mansura 35% · hit
W
El Entag EL Harby2–3El Mansura23 Oct · away
Pick: El Mansura 39% · hit
L
El Mansura1–2AL Nasr SC15 Oct · home
Pick: El Mansura 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ismaily SC and El Mansura meet in Second League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Ismaily SC win 36.5%, draw 31.5%, El Mansura win 32.0%. The pick is Ismaily SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 34.7%. Both teams to score: 41.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.